MLB Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions: San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants (Sunday, Sept. 27)

Padres vs. Giants Odds

Odds as of Sunday at 1:50 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

San Diego has been a pest to San Francisco all year. The Padres came into this final series of the regular season with a 5-1 record against the Giants. That was probably the first warning sign for a Giants team teetering on the brink of a playoff berth.

Closing out the season with a four-game series against the Padres was never going to be easy for the Giants. But then again, you’ve got to earn your way in to play October baseball.

The Giants have only won one game in this series and no longer control their playoff destiny, now needing a win against the Padres along with a St. Louis win over Milwaukee in order to grab the final playoff spot.

Today’s game will feature two left-handers on the mound, with the Giants handing the ball to veteran Drew Smyly, who will be opposed by Adrian Morejon.

Check out our new MLB PRO Report, where we highlight factors that provide betting edges — like large wagers, historically profitable betting systems, model projections and expert picks — that when combined with sharp money can powerfully detail the smartest bets on a given slate.

Let’s dive in to assess the Giants' chances in this must-win situation:

San Francisco Giants

It’s taken a little bit of time for Smyly to get going this season. He missed more than a month of the season due to an injury on his throwing hand. However, if there are any takeaways from his last start, it’s that Smyly could be ready for a moment like this.

Smyly turned in his best performance of the season by pitching into the sixth inning and allowing just run against the Colorado Rockies. While he’s yet to figure in a decision in his six outings, he’s still produced a 3.38 ERA along with a 1.17 WHIP on the season. Smyly’s advanced stats are even better when you consider his 1.92 FIP and 2.76 xFIP. While his 3.38 BB/9 ratio is slightly alarming, his 13.5 K/9 ratio is remarkable.

If you have to go up against the Padres, then you probably have a better chance with a leftie on the mound. San Diego is just 9-10 against a southpaw vs. 27-13 right-handers.

San Diego Padres

Morejon will be thrown right into the pressure cooker today. The 21-year-old left-hander has only made five career starts and he’ll be up against a Giants team desperate to make the playoffs for the first time since 2016.

Morejon is 2-2 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. His 6.07 FIP, which is higher than his ERA, suggests he could be due for some regression. Morejon was touched up by the long ball in his last outing. His 3.24 HR/9 ratio is enough to make hitters salivate.

The Giants have fancied their chances against left-handers this season.

As a team, they have a .270 AVG / .340 OBP / .456 SLG slash line against them compared to their .262 AVG / .331 OBP / .435 SLG slash line against righties. While the Giants lineup has only nine at-bats against Morejon, they’ve hit for a .444 AVG with a .545 OBP and .667 SLG.

Overall, San Francisco is 14-9 against southpaw starters this season vs. 15-21 when facing right-handers.

Betting Analysis

I dislike the term "must-win situation" because it almost assumes the team on the other side isn't going to give it a go on their end.

Instead, I prefer to focus on the matchup on the field as I believe Morejon can be susceptible to the Giants in this spot. There's enough data to suggest that there's something to San Francisco's record and success against left-handed pitchers.

And then when you add a pitcher they've had some success against, albeit in a limited sample size, I think they could make this a nightmare outing for Morejon.

In a spot like this, I actually prefer to target Morejon in the first five innings and completely take bullpens right out of the game. At PointsBet, you can bet the first five innings on the money line and it has got a pretty good price at -136

I'll  risk a half-unit of my bankroll on the Giants and hopefully they can chase Morejon early on in this game.

The Pick: Giants F5 ML -136

[Bet the Giants F5 now at BetMGM and get a $500 INSTANT deposit match]