Diamondbacks-Cubs Betting Preview: All Signs Point to Over/Under Value
Jim Young-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chicago Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo (44) and center fielder Ian Happ (8)
Betting Odds: Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs
- D-backs: Zack Godley (-101)
- Cubs: Tyler Chatwood (-109)
- Over/under: 9o-120
- First pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
>> All odds as of 11:30 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets
The Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks wrap up their four-game series on Thursday afternoon. Get your second screen ready, decline that 2 p.m. ET meeting invite and let’s make some money betting day-game baseball.
As bettors we need to consider multiple factors before placing a wager, which includes pitching matchups, weather conditions, the betting market, injuries and umpires. After analyzing each, all signs point to taking the Cubs-Diamondbacks under.
Tyler Chatwood vs. Zack Godley
This isn’t a marquee matchup, but each starter has looked good in recent outings. Godley gets the nod for Arizona and will try for a third win in five starts. Opposing the Diamondbacks is Chatwood, who allowed just one run and one hit over 5.1 innings against the St. Louis Cardinals on Saturday. Both pitchers are showing good form, which makes the under more appealing.
When bettors think of wind and baseball, Wrigley Field comes to mind. The forecast calls for average wind speeds of 9 mph during the game blowing from left to right. Since 2005, the under is 324-264-25 (55%) in Cubbie day games as long as the wind isn’t blowing out to center according to Bet Labs. If there is a high total (eight or more runs) the under improves to 235-170-15 (58%).
This system has only one losing season in the past 14 seasons. Large sample and consistent results? Check and check.
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Nearly 70% of bets are on the over. But a steam move — sudden line movement across the market caused by an overload of money from respected players — was triggered on the under.
Kris Bryant is dealing with a shoulder injury that has caused him to miss 16 games in June and July. Bryant has been ruled out of Thursday’s contest and placed on the disabled list. The Cubs could also be without Javier Baez. Their second baseman didn’t start on Wednesday because of a knee bruise. Chicago is talented, but down two All-Stars, the Cubs don’t have the same offensive ceiling.
Balls and Strikes
Mike Estabrook will be behind home plate this afternoon. Since Estabrook began calling balls and strikes in 2007, the under has gone 153-115-15 (57%) in his games. Estabrook is the seventh-most profitable under ump in the Bet Labs database in this time frame.
There are no guarantees in betting, especially with baseball, but after covering all our bases, the Cubs-Diamondbacks under looks like a good bet.