MLB Daily Betting Model, 5/2: Should You Trust the Favored Angels vs. Blue Jays?
Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Brian Goodwin, Mike Trout
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on May 2 with his model below, and highlights the Rockies-Brewers (1:10 p.m. ET) and Blue Jays-Angels (10:07 p.m. ET) matchups as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
If there is a character of the year to this point in the season, it has to be the Reds’ Jesse Winker.
On Wednesday, not only did Winker make a sliding game-ending catch in foul territory, but he also sent some of the Mets fans home with a little parting gift:
— MLB (@MLB) May 2, 2019
Winker wasn’t involved in any ballpark food shenanigans yesterday, but this Dodgers fan had himself a night in San Francisco. First dropping his fries:
And then his pizza:
REAL LIFE: The guy who lost the fries just dropped a slice of pizza. 😂 pic.twitter.com/En2Ea8APre
— MLB (@MLB) May 2, 2019
At least the woman in the row below him was only there for the Pizza incident. She doesn’t look the least bit amused.
Get it together, Dodger man! Ballpark food is not cheap.
Recapping Yesterday’s Model
The model went 3-1 against full-game moneylines, including the Kansas City Royals in Game 2 of their doubleheader, and 0-2 against moneylines for the first five innings on Tuesday.
My actual picks went 0-2, and I was down 1.0 units for the day. My Colorado moneyline wager ended up being canceled as a result of Milwaukee’s last-minute starting pitcher change.
It was an overall positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 11 cents on the Padres moneyline (+141 to +130) and 12 cents on the Mariners F5 line (+105 to -107), but the results didn’t go my way.
On Deck for Thursday, May 2
All odds as of Thursday morning (view live odds).
The model recommends one full-game moneyline and one moneyline for the first five innings (F5) on Thursday.
As of writing, the 4% trigger threshold officially marked the Los Angeles Angels as the full-game play against the Blue Jays. It also likes the New York Mets in the F5 portion of their game.
My projections are relatively high on Tyler Skaggs, a lefty who has steadily improved his strikeout minus walk rate over the past few seasons:
- 2016: 12.3%
- 2017: 13.1%
- 2018: 16.7%
- 2019: 17.3%
Skaggs only throws three pitch types (Four-Seam Fastball, Curveball, Changeup), and the Curve is typically his nastiest pitch.
Skaggs, a former first-round pick (by the Angels, before being traded to Arizona and then back to the Angels) has struggled with injuries throughout his career.
When he’s been on the mound, Skaggs has been highly effective, and he showed improved strikeout ability in 2018 — sitting down 24.2% of batters on a career-high 11% whiff rate. That swinging strike rate has returned to career norm (8%) in 2019, so it remains to be seen if Skaggs can get back to that peak strikeout level that he showed last season.
Freddy Peralta will start today for the Brewers, and he is one of the more intriguing young arms in baseball. Peralta throws fastballs over 80% of the time, going to his curveball (16%) and changeup (4%) sparingly:
Freddy Peralta, 93mph Fastball and 77mph Curveball, Overlay/Trails pic.twitter.com/DCQBhG1OGA
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 27, 2018
Somehow this extreme mix works for Peralta, with a 10.5% swinging strike rate and 4.11 FIP to begin his career.
It remains to be seen whether opposing teams will start to figure him out during his second and third time through the league — his last two starts haven’t been pretty.
I’m also playing the Mets and Rays F5 spreads today, as my team totals have each of those favorites covering the runline in the first half of their games.
Bets (So Far) for May 2
- LA Angels (-142) Game Moneyline
- Milwaukee Brewers (-117) Game Moneyline
- New York Mets (-0.5, -110) F5 Runline
- Tampa Bay Rays (-0.5, -115) F5 Runline
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 5/2: Moneylines & Over/Unders
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.