MLB Daily Betting Model, 4/28: Can Luke Weaver Match Cubs’ José Quintana?
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Luke Weaver (24).
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the April 28 slate of baseball games with his model below, including the Rays-Red Sox (1:05 p.m. ET) and Rangers-Mariners (4:10 p.m. ET) matchups.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
The best baseball action I saw on Saturday actually occurred on Friday night — a catch from an NCAA Division II game between two schools in South Carolina; North Greenville University and Erskine College.
The video needs no further commentary, I’ll just leave it here for you to enjoy on a loop:
Recapping Yesterday’s Model
The model went 1-3 against full-game moneylines and 2-2 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Saturday.
My actual picks went 3-3, and I was up 1.03 units for the day.
It was the most positive day this season in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 24 cents on the Texas F5 line (+102 to -122), 21 cents on the Pirates moneyline (+206 to +185), 17 cents on the Mets F5 line (-135 to -152), five cents on the Rays moneyline (+125 to +120), and both of the totals dropped by half of a run.
On Deck for Sunday, April 28
All odds as of Sunday morning (view live odds).
The model recommends four full-game moneylines and four moneylines for the first five innings (F5) for Sunday.
At the time of writing, the 4% trigger threshold officially marked the Miami Marlins, New York Mets, San Francisco Giants and Tampa Bay Rays as the full-game plays. It also likes the Giants, Marlins and Mets, in addition to the Detroit Tigers, as F5 plays.
I’m already on the Rays again for today. After averaging 95.5 mph on his fastball during his April 16 outing against the Yankees, Chris Sale’s velocity dropped back down to 92.7 mph in his last start against the Tigers.
In that start, he threw his slider more than 50% of the time, demonstrating that he still has no confidence in the fastball, which he’s now throwing only about 37% of the time.
Sale is still unable to get swings and misses with the fastball, so he is relying on his sharp slider and deceptive change-up to generate weak contact and quick outs.
That approach might work against lesser opponents like the Tigers and Blue Jays, but the Rays present the most difficult matchup (both in terms of opposing lineup and opposing pitcher) that the Red Sox have faced with Sale on the mound this season.
Boston will also be without J.D. Martinez for the second straight day. I have fair odds for this game set at -109/+109 in favor of Boston, meaning that Tampa Bay continues to get, in my opinion, a free 20 to 25 cents worth of line value.
This Sale streak will run out eventually, but we need to keep riding it until that happens.
I’ll be playing the New York Mets and the Texas Rangers based upon the full game model recommendations. Texas and its strong offense has been a fun team to back, and I hope that the Mets can finally play competent defense behind Steven Matz today after letting down both Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard.
I will also likely be backing the San Francisco Giants in the F5 portion of its game in order to avoid the Yankees bullpen advantage.
The one play that I made that wasn’t directly recommended by the model was on the Arizona Diamondbacks and Luke Weaver. Acquired in the Paul Goldschmidt trade, Weaver is a former first-round pick (27th overall) by the St. Louis Cardinals and has had a promising pedigree.
After posting impressive minor league numbers, Weaver struggled to find himself with the Cardinals, but the change of scenery to Arizona seems to have helped.
There isn’t much different about his pitch mix or velocity in 2019. Weaver is simply throwing with more confidence, generating a 31:6 strikeout to walk ratio in 27 innings pitched.
Weaver thrives by burying his mid-90s fastball high in the strike zone, then getting batters to swing over the top of his change-up:
Weaver doesn’t necessarily have ace-caliber stuff, but he is a competent mid-rotation starter who should be able to consistently give Arizona strong outings.
Facing the Cubs’ José Quintana, who has also been terrific this season, I also like under 9.0 runs in this matchup.
I have that total projected at 8.4 runs and played it at the open. The total now stands at 8.5 runs (-120 to the over), devoid of value.
Bets (So Far) for April 28
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+104) Game Moneyline
- New York Mets (-112) Game Moneyline
- Tampa Bay Rays (+138, +143) Game Moneyline
- Texas Rangers (+117) Game Moneyline
- Under 9 (-115), Chicago at Arizona
I’m also considering playing the San Francisco Giants F5 line, but am still undecided on that play at the time of writing.
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 4/28: Moneylines & Over/Unders
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.