MLB Daily Betting Model, 4/9: Harvey Offering Value at Home?
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Matt Harvey
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the April 9 slate of baseball games with his model below, including the BlueJays - Red Sox matchup.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
On Sunday afternoon, Yasiel Puig auditioned to become the next star of an action movie franchise.
On Monday afternoon, Javier Báez sent in his own audition tape for a role in the Harry Potter series; using his bat like a magic wand by simply dropping it near a pitch that had bounced in the dirt:
After reaching base, Báez acted just as surprised as everybody watching. However, we all saw what we saw: Javier Báez is a sorcerer, and you won’t be able to convince me otherwise.
Vladimir Guerrero was famous for making contact with bad pitches, but I never saw him make contact without the bat physically remaining in his hands.
Guerrero and his 2,590 career hits are now enshrined in the baseball hall of fame, but none of those hits definitively came via the powers of magic.
We have clear and convincing video evidence that Javier Báez has now recorded one career hit by the way of his own supernatural powers. Eat your heart out, Vladdy.
Recapping Yesterday’s Model
A 1-2 day for both myself and the model yesterday, after I ultimately decided to play the Pirates for a small amount at what was nearly their peak price (+126 vs. +121)
I had another positive day in terms of overall Closing Line Value (CLV). The Angels (-104) closed at the price where I got them (after briefly moving to around even money), and I was 8 cents ahead of the final number on the Royals (+108 vs. +100).
The Royals blew two separate two-run leads before the Mariners offense erupted for an eight-run inning to pull away for good. In the outburst, the Mariners broke the Major League record for the most home runs by a team (32) in the first 12 games of the season.
I’m the proud owner of an “Over” ticket on the season win total for the 10-2 Mariners, but not even the most optimistic pundit expected them to be THIS good.
On Deck for Tuesday 4/9
All odds as of early Monday morning.
The model recommends four full-game moneylines for Friday:
The 4% trigger threshold officially marked the Angels, Giants, Marlins, and Yankees as plays this morning.
However, I also played the Toronto Blue Jays at a smaller edge based upon one factor: Chris Sale’s velocity decline.
Sale dealt with throwing shoulder inflammation during his incredible 2018 season, before ultimately being shut down in order to be saved for Boston’s World Series run.
However, when he returned, Sale’s velocity was noticeably down. He averaged about 98 mph on his fastball through August 2018, but one month later his average fastball was around 93 mph, and that trend has carried over into the 2019 season.
Over his first two starts (both losses), Sale has averaged just under 93 MPH on his four-seam fastball, and 91.3 mph on his sinker (about a 3 mph drop from previous levels). His changeup and slider are also down about 2-3 mph from the middle of the 2018 season.
It’s been argued and is entirely possible that Sale is simply easing off on his delivery effort in order to save his arm for the long haul. That’s entirely possible, but he also hasn’t looked sharp in either of his two outings; getting away with a lot of mistakes in a 1-0 loss at Oakland.
Sale averaged a 15.8% swinging strike rate in 2018, the best mark of his career. In a short two-start 2019 sample, he’s currently at 9.8%, the lowest mark of his career (and 4% below his career average).
At odds of greater than 2-1, I’m happy to take a shot against Sale being fully healthy today.
I’ll also be backing the Angels for the second straight game against the Brewers, even with Matt Harvey pitching for Los Angeles. As my colleague Josh Appelbaum pointed out yesterday, “American League teams have also dominated Interleague Play, winning +130.06 units since 2005.”
I’ll also be taking my second shot this season on Derek Holland against the Padres. Holland’s batted ball data currently (and surprisingly) has him as a slightly better pitcher than his counterpart Joey Lucchesi. Holland struck out nearly a batter per inning in 2018 and has 12 strikeouts in his first 9 innings pitched this season.
I’m tepid on playing this banged up Yankees team at Houston, but willing to see how high their price climbs before gametime.
I feel similarly about the Marlins with Jose Urena at Cincinnati, but there is definitely value in that inflated number.
For the second straight day, the Cardinals should be in a contrarian spot against the Dodgers. Additionally, sharps appear to be lining up on Kansas City at home against Seattle, once again.
I’ll wait to see how the market data lines up with my projections as the day progresses.
Bets (So Far) for April 9
Thus far, I have locked in:
- Los Angeles Angels (+117)
- San Francisco Giants (+112)
- Toronto Blue Jays (+200)
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 4/9: Moneylines & Over/Unders
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.