Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Starlin Castro and Justin Bour.
Wiseguys continued their winning ways on Thursday, cashing both total plays (Phillies-Dodgers Under 6.5 and Red Sox-Astros Under 9) for a 2-1 day. Now it’s Friday, which is arguably the best day of the week for sharp MLB bettors. Public players are finishing their work week and more apt to get down on games (specifically favorites and home teams), which leads to increased ticket counts and more contrarian value.
This doesn’t mean sharps double down on Fridays and risk multiple units, it just means that they’re operating with an increased edge. As always, wiseguys stay the course and stick to flat betting.
After analyzing Friday’s 15-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including games that start at 7:10 p.m., 8:10 p.m. and 9:40 p.m. ET
Data as of 4 p.m. ET
Chicago Cubs at New York Mets (+104)
7:10 p.m. ET
Wiseguys are all over the Mets tonight. New York is getting only 29% of bets, but the line has moved bigly in the Amazin’s direction. It opened at Mets +116, got bet all the way down to -107 and then evened out at +104.
Why would the oddsmakers move the line toward New York if two thirds of bets are betting against them? Because sharps got down hard on the Mets at the Greek (+4.5 units), triggering market-wide reverse line movement. New York is also a dog with a high total (9), a profitable spot since 2005.