Tuesday Sharp Report: Pro Players Hammering Three Dogs
Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Chicago White Sox players Omar Narvaez and Reynaldo Lopez.
Wiseguys had a profitable Monday. They went 1-1 with their plays, but thanks to the Marlins’ (21% bets, +144) upset win over the Giants, they were able to earn close to a half unit. This is why sharps love dogs. You can win at a sub 50% clip but still turn a profit based on the plus money.
After analyzing Tuesday’s 15-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:05 p.m., 7:10 p.m. and 8:10 p.m.ET.
Data as of 2 p.m. ET
Colorado Rockies (+131) at Philadelphia Phillies
7:05 p.m. ET
The Rockies are struggling. They’ve lost eight of their last 10 and now must travel to Philly to face ace Aaron Nola (7-2, 2.35 ERA). The public sees an easy Phils win. However, despite receiving 63% of bets, Philadelphia has fallen from -160 to -142.
Sharps at Pinnacle and CRIS (two of the sharpest offshore books) steamed Colorado +147 and +140, causing Nolan Arenado and company to fall from +147 to +131. The Rockies also enjoy a profitable smart money discrepancy: they’re getting only 37% of bets but it accounts for 52% of dollars, an indication that the bigger, sharper wagers are siding with the road dog.
San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins (+104)
7:10 p.m. ET
The Marlins came up huge for the sharps last night. Gambler’s Fallacy says there’s no way they can win two in a row. But wiseguys aren’t afraid. Miami is once again the most lopsided play in the most heavily bet game of the night (only 14% of bets), but they’re getting more money (20% of dollars) and enjoying sharp reverse line movement (+106 to +104). Goodfellas at the Greek got down hard on Miami +110. The Fish also match the profitable Bad Team After Win Bet Labs system (+172.04 units since 2005).
Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox (+125)
8:10 p.m. ET
Recreational bettors want nothing to do with the White Sox (22-42), especially with James Shields (1-7, 4.92 ERA) on the mound. However, despite receiving 71% of bets, the Tribe have fallen from +152 to +125. Why would the White Sox payout get smaller if the public is fading them?
Because sharps at Pinnacle steamed CHW +138, creating South Side liability. Chicago is also a divisional dog with a high total (9.5), a profitable spot since 2005, receiving more money (30%) than bets (24%), and fits the valuable Betting Against the Public Bet Labs system (+168.13 units since 2005).
Remember: the betting market is fluid. Data changes as more action comes in. For updated odds and percentages, be sure to check out the Action Network MLB betting trends page.
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