Wednesday’s MLB Over/Under: Betting a Volatile Twins-White Sox Pitching Matchup
Kamil Krzaczynski, USA TODAY Sports
As expected based on his remarkable track record in National League parks, Luis Severino was absolutely sensational Tuesday night in helping us hold on for our Yankees-Phillies Under 7.5 bet. Let’s just focus on stringing another one in the ‘W’ column.
Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 53-32-2, +17.5 units
Yesterday’s Result: Yankees-Phillies Under 7.5, Severino vs. Arrieta (WIN)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | O/U: 9
8:10 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: Kyle Gibson (2-5, 3.25 ERA) vs. James Shields (2-9, 4.59 ERA)
Yes, both these AL Central right-handers are a combined 4-14 on the campaign but don’t let their underwhelming records fool you. In the right spot, these are two starting pitchers capable of getting the job done for an under bet as high as 9.
That has to be considered especially true whenever Gibson takes the hill opposite the White Sox, against whom he’s easily enjoyed his most success compared to any other American League opponent. In fact, in 11 career meetings with the South Siders, Gibson is 6-2 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Whenever he has an assignment in Chicago — which is where he’ll be this evening — he’s been even better than that, going 5-0 in seven starts at Guaranteed Rate Field alongside a 2.02 ERA and 0.90 WHIP.
Gibson was very solid in the second half of last year and that momentum has spilled into 2018. The 6-foot-6 hurler has logged career bests in ERA (3.25), WHIP (1.21), K/9 (8.73) and batting average against (.212) through almost the halfway point this season. Additionally, he’s also throwing harder than he ever has previously, registering 93.4 mph on the radar gun for his average fastball velocity.
Meanwhile, Shields has also been moving in the right direction, despite having a 6.14 ERA after the season’s first month. Since then, however, the 13-year veteran has done a respectable job cutting that down by more than a full run-and-a-half — to 4.59, to be exact — and his finest work of the year has come most recently.
Before the 36-year-old’s last start, during which horrendous defense derailed his day, Shields was crafting together a nice run in which he churned out six quality starts in seven tries. In five of those efforts, he also managed at least five strikeouts, a stark contrast to earlier in the year when he wasn’t missing any bats at all (19 Ks in his first seven outings).
I believe all of this is evidence that Shields has settled in, and the fact that this will be emanating from his home site — where he’s been significantly better (3.95 ERA) compared to on the road (5.97 ERA) this season — can aid the former Ray in delivering another fine performance. It’s also worth pointing out that the Twins are still without Miguel Sano, who was banished to the minor leagues almost two weeks ago, and that has made their lineup a lot less intimidating. A couple of decent outings can do the trick here.
Play: UNDER 9 (-120)
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