Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, Sept. 15: Trust Patrick Sandoval Against the Rays?
Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Michael Brosseau and Matt Duffy
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Sunday's slate of games, including how to bet the Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels (4:07 p.m. ET).
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
The Los Angeles Angels have not made the playoffs since 2014 – when they were eliminated in three games by the Kansas City Royals.
Those remain the only playoff games of Mike Trout’s career.
It’s not for lack of trying to build a good team around him; the Angels just spent a lot of money on the wrong players this decade – laying out massive contracts for Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, CJ Wilson and others – all of which failed to move the needle forward.
The 2019 Angels easily have the worst expected winning percentage of Trout’s career (.457), and yet he might win his third MVP award.
He has been out of the lineup since September 7 and might return as a DH on Sunday. Can he give the Angels a boost in their series finale against the Rays?
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 2-4 against full-game moneylines and 1-2 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 4-1-1, and I finished up 2.82 units for the day.
It was a very positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 95 cents against the five sides that I played, not including Oakland’s team total – which I nabbed at plus money before it closed on the other side of even.
MLB Betting Model for Sunday, Sept. 15
Today, the model recommends six full-game moneylines and five moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Angels, Padres, Phillies, Pirates, Royals and Tigers as full-game plays. The model also likes all of those teams except for the Royals as F5 plays.
I’m going to continue to avoid the terrible teams with just a few weeks left to go in the season; so the Pirates (who are 21-39 in the second half, and surrendered 31 runs over the past two games against the Cubs), Royals, and Tigers were immediate cross-offs.
I couldn’t find a significant reason to go against the Angels, Padres, or Phillies; and all three made my card and are using a pitcher that I have discussed pretty recently.
I backed Cal Quantrill in his last start on September 9. He gave up eight runs in 4.1 innings against the Cubs; his third straight start allowing eight runs.
There’s nothing particularly concerning under the hood – it looks like a run of bad luck with runners on base. Quantrill’s FIP (4.33) is more indicative of his true talent than his 5.12 ERA.
And Chi Chi Gonzalez of the Rockies is one of my favorite pitchers to fade: 6.56 ERA, 6.15 FIP, 5.71 ERA.
I have the Padres as a 54% favorite and will take them at plus-money.
I discussed Jason Vargas before his last start on September 10. His velocity is down to a career-low, but his changeup has remained extremely useful.
His fielding independent metrics and profile is comparable to that of Rick Porcello, who I broke down on September 8.
I show the Phillies as a 55% home favorite, and will also take them, gladly, at plus-money.
Lastly, whether or not Mike Trout is in the lineup, I like the Angels today against the Rays.
Their 22-year-old lefty starter, Patrick Sandoval, has generated a 4.01 FIP and 3.52 xFIP in his first 29 MLB innings; but his 5.28 ERA masks that.
Sandoval has generated an excellent swinging-strike rate (13.8%) while showing an excellent curveball and changeup;
The changeup has a swing-and-miss rate of over 50% and looks to be a dominant offering against right-handed hitters.
He was particularly impressive in his outing against the lefty-slugging Oakland Athletics while using the off-speed pitch, and I think he’s a breakout arm to watch heading into 2020.
Bets (so far) for Sept. 15
- Los Angeles Angels (+154) Game Moneyline
- Philadelphia Phillies (+100) Game Moneyline
- San Diego Padres (+107) Game Moneyline
- F5 Over 5.5 (-115), Yankees at Blue Jays
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 9/15
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.