MLB Player Props: Can Kenta Maeda Punch Out Six at Coors?
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kenta Maeda.
- There are a dozen baseball games on the day that will span nearly 12 straight hours.
- We're picking the over/under on strikeout props for Kenta Maeda and Joe Musgrove.
Two days ago, we had the Cobbler. Yesterday, we had Cobb. Today, we have a couple of guys whose names and/or nicknames sound nothing like either of those words. Oh well.
MLB action is once again spread out throughout the day, with a handful of mid-afternoon affairs to help tide us baseball addicts over until the evening. Luckily, one of the best props falls in that 4 p.m. ET hour.
MLB Player Props, Friday April 5
Here’s what we have going today:
- Dodgers at Rockies: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Reds at Pirates: 7:05 p.m. ET
Our FantasyLabs MLB Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 1:20 p.m. ET. View live odds here.
Dodgers SP Kenta Maeda
The Pick: Over 5.5 (-140)
Coors is back, which is generally a bad thing for pitchers. However, I still believe Kenta Maeda can reach six strikeouts on the day.
Maeda posted a career high 10.99 K/9 last year, and although that was slightly boosted by his work out of the bullpen, he still had a very strong 10.6 K/9 as a starter.
The big concern for taking a strikeout over at Coors Field is that the pitcher will get drubbed early in the game and won’t pitch deep enough to pile up the Ks. However, Maeda has actually done pretty well in his appearances at Coors, pitching to a 3.19 ERA in 31 innings to go with 35 strikeouts.
We’re projecting 7.7 Ks for Maeda against a Rockies lineup that has a strikeout/AB rate of 28%.
Pirates SP Joe Musgrove
The Pick: Under 4.5 (-113)
Oh boy, we have ourselves an under. This is just the third under I’ve written about this season, with one win and one push due to a rainout. Pretty sure it’s a stone-cold-lock based on that sick track record.
Joe Musgrove has a career average of slightly below 8 K/9, which is not great in today’s age. It’s not awful, but you typically want to see one strikeout an inning from your top starters.
What makes me bullish on the under is the Reds’ stingy lineup. Their lineup has the lowest SO/AB of any team today at just .156 per FantasyLabs player models. That’s why we’re projecting 3.4 strikeouts for Musgrove.
Even if he manages to go six innings, there’s a good chance he doesn’t reach five strikeouts.