MLB Player Props: Can Homer Bailey Strike Out 5 Angels?

MLB Player Props: Can Homer Bailey Strike Out 5 Angels? article feature image

Apr 23, 2019; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Homer Bailey (21) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

  • Using the FantasyLabs Player Prop model, we've found value on the strikeout over/under for Royals pitcher Homer Bailey.

There is a full day of games on tap for Sunday starting at 1:05 p.m. ET. I’m not one for long intros, so let’s get right into which of today’s MLB player props is worth betting right now!

MLB Player Props: Sunday, April 28

  • Los Angeles Angels @ Kansas City Royals : 2:15 p.m. ET

Our FantasyLabs MLB Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 12 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

Royals SP Homer Bailey

THE PICK: Under 4.0 (-115)

Somehow, Bailey has managed six or more strikeouts in all but one start this year. He’s sporting a 26.7% strikeout rate this season, which is 11.5% higher than his 2018 mark and 7.7% higher than his career average strikeout rate. So, for the sake of this prop, I hope Bailey regresses from his current rate.

He allowed four earned runs against the Rays in his last start and didn’t record a strikeout after making it just one inning.  While four strikeouts aren’t that many and it’s a prime push number, the Angels’ projected lineup has a 17.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months — the lowest mark among teams on Sunday.

We’re projecting Bailey for around three strikeouts today. I’d bet this down to -125.

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