MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Brewers-Twins, 2 Other Tuesday Games
David Berding-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Hernan Perez (14) celebrates with shortstop Orlando Arcia (3).
- Wiseguys are back to the grind after the long Memorial Day Weekend.
- Sharps are getting down on three games tonight: Giants-Marlins (7:10 p.m. ET), Nationals-Braves (7:20 p.m. ET) and Brewers-Twins (8:10 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.
The long Memorial Day weekend has come and gone. No more backyard barbecues, adult beverages and s’mores over the bonfire. It’s back to the grind for wiseguys and working class heroes.
>> All odds as of 11:30p.m. ET. Remember: the betting market is fluid and constantly moving. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
San Francisco Giants @ Miami Marlins
7:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Marlins (moved from +111 to -111)
Line movement in and of itself isn’t always sharp. If the line is moving toward the popular side receiving the vast majority of bets, that’s considered standard movement. It’s when the line moves bigly away from the popular side (known as reverse line movement) that lets you know sharps have gotten down on a game.
This under-the-radar matchup may not be garnering any headlines tonight, but it’s receiving massive sharp action.
Public bettors take one look at the win-loss records of each team and that’s all they need to know. Both ball clubs are well below .500 (San Francisco is 21-31 and Miami is 17-34), but surely the Giants are the better of the two teams and should win tonight, right?
Fade the conventional wisdom, say the wiseguys.
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a short -120 road favorite. Despite 60% of bets backing the G-Men, the line has completely flipped away from the Giants (-120 to +102) and toward the Marlins (+111 to -111), a dead giveaway that pros are backing the Fish.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we’ve noticed two big steam moves on Miami, with wiseguys loading up at -105 and -101.
The Marlins also fit the profitable Bet Labs system Bad Team After Win (+157.93 units won since 2005).
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves
7:20 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Over (stayed at 8.5)
Casual bettors gravitate towards overs. It’s just not fun rooting for groundouts, pop-ups, double plays and strikeouts. Average Joes want to see hits, home runs and high-scoring games. However, every once in a while recreational bettors will load up on an under, providing sharps a rare contrarian over opportunity.
That’s exactly what we’re seeing tonight in Atlanta.
This total opened at 8.5 with even -110 juice on both sides. With two studs on the mound (Stephen Strasburg’s 3.25 ERA vs. Max Fried’s 2.88), 60% of bets are taking the under, expecting a low-scoring pitcher’s duel.
However, 57% of dollars are on the over and we’ve seen the total rise to 9 before falling back to down to 8.5. The over 8.5 is now being juiced up to -120, which means liability remains on the over and it may go back up to 9.
We’ve also tracked three steam and one reverse line move on the over. The key for sharps has been getting the over 8.5, as all moves were triggered at that number. That way a 5-4 game wins instead of pushes.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins
8:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Brewers (moved from +121 to -102)
This line has been all over the place. Without the Sports Insights live odds and line history feature — which details every single line move for every game — you may not have noticed sharp action taking place.
This line originally opened with the Twins listed as -130 home favorites and the Brewers a +110 underdog. Heavy betting on Minnesota pushed the Twinkies up to -140, but then a pitching change took place that caused an earthquake across the betting market.
Around 11 a.m. ET, Martin Perez was pushed back a day and replaced with rookie lefty Devin Smeltzer, who will be making his MLB debut. Ever since the pitching swap was announced, sharps have been crushing the Brewers.
We’ve noticed four Bet Signals on Milwaukee, with Goodfellas crushing the Brewers at +133, +125, +117 and +115.
This overload of smart money on the Beer Makers has created huge liability for the books, pushing Milwaukee all the way to -105, essentially moving from a moderate dog to a coin-flip price.
The Brew Crew are receiving only 40% of bets but a whopping 77% of dollars, further evidence of big pro money backing the road team in this interleague showdown.