MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Mariners-Yankees, Braves-Diamondbacks

MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Mariners-Yankees, Braves-Diamondbacks article feature image

Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman Eduardo Escobar. Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

  • Wiseguys are betting a pair of MLB games on Thursday, headlined by Braves-Diamondbacks (9:40 p.m. ET).
  • Sharps are also getting down on Mariners-Yankees (6:35 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.

It has been one step forward, one step back for the sharps the past two days. After going 3-0 on Tuesday, pros went 0-2 yesterday and had their third play rained out. The ups and downs can drive baseball bettors crazy. The key is staying even-keeled, sticking to the blueprint and playing the long game.

After analyzing Thursday’s 10-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action coming down on two MLB games.

Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.

Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees

6:35 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 9.5 to 9)

Wiseguys took a bad beat on the Mariners-Yankees Under (9.5 to 9) last night, as Seattle took a 7-1 lead into the ninth inning before tacking on three runs to win 10-1 and send the game over.

But sharps aren’t letting that heartbreaking loss cloud their vision tonight. They’re going back to the under well.

This total opened at 9.5. With two high-ERA pitchers facing off (Mike Leake 4.91 vs. J.A. Happ 4.93), the public sees a high-scoring game. However, despite 75% of bets taking the over, the line has fallen to 9.

This is a classic example of reverse line movement. Even though the public is hammering the over, the books dropped the line because they took in big under bets from respected players, creating liability that outweighed the lopsided public over betting.

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked four separate steam and reverse line moves on the Under 9.5.

This Under also matches the profitable Bet Labs PRO system Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams (+189.71 units since 2005).

An added bonus for Goodfellas sweating the under: The wind is blowing in from right-center at 9-10 mph.

Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks

9:40 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Diamondbacks (moved from +107 to -104)

Casual bettors love backing a good starting pitcher with a low ERA. Sharps know this and bet against top pitchers, knowing they can capitalize on public bias and take advantage of inflated or underpriced numbers.

This game is a perfect example.

Mike Soroka (3-1) has a sparkling 1.14 ERA. Despite the D-Backs boasting a better record (21-16) than the Braves (18-19), the public says give me the ace starter at a virtual pick’em price.

Fine by the sharps. They’ll gladly back the Snakes.

This game opened with Atlanta listed as a short -116 road favorite. Currently 55% of bets are taking the Braves, yet the line has moved away from ATL (-116 to -104) and toward Arizona (+107 to -104).

What caused this movement? A pair of big steam moves on Arizona, the first at +110 and the second at +107. We haven’t seen a single conflicting move (or buyback) on the Braves.

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