MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Dodgers-Giants, 2 Other Tuesday Games
Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Yangervis Solarte
- Wiseguys are getting down on 3 MLB games tonight, headlined by Dodgers-Giants (9:45 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also betting Reds-Mets (7:10 p.m. ET) and Astros-Twins (7:40 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Wiseguys got taken to the woodshed last night, going 0-3 with their Tuesday plays. It's important to remember that sharps bet to risk (not win), always risk one unit and bet only about 3% of their bankroll per play. There will be good days and bad days (like yesterday), but the flat betting approach will keep you in the game long term.
After analyzing Tuesday’s loaded 15-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action on three MLB games.
>> All odds as of 3:15 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Full Sports Betting Glossary
- How to Win with Action Network Data
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- Common Mistakes Sports Bettors Should Avoid
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets
7:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Mets (moved from +111 to +100)
On the surface, this looks like a layup with Cincinnati. Just look at the starting pitchers: Luis Castillo (1.23 ERA) vs. Jason Vargas (7.20 ERA). Reds all day!
Not so fast, say the pros.
This game opened with Cincy listed as a short -120 road favorite. Despite 70% of bets taking the Redlegs, the line has fallen away from Cincy (-120 to -110) and toward the Mets (+111 to +100). This peculiar line movement is a dead giveaway that sharps are backing New York.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed two steam and reverse line moves on NYM +106 and +105. The Mets are getting only 30% of bets but 45% of dollars, further evidence of smart money wagers in their favor.
Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins
7:40 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 8.5 to 7.5)
Minnesota (+156) upset Houston 1-0 last night, giving under (8) backers an easy, sweatless win. The public sees Michael Pineda (5.62 ERA) facing a vaunted Astros lineup and says "it has to go over tonight."
But sharps aren't taking the bait.
This over/under opened at 8.5. Currently, 60% of bets are taking the over, yet the total has dropped a full run down to 7.5. It's common to see a total rise or fall a half run — but a full run is somewhat rare. And it's almost always a result of wiseguys, not the public.
We tracked three big steam moves on the under, the first at 8.5 and two more at 8.
The under is also receiving a whipping 79% of dollars — further evidence of big wiseguy wagers sweating a low scoring game.
An added bonus for the sharps: the wind is blowing straight in at 9 to 10 mph tonight, making the under a Bet Labs PRO system weather match (+103.15 units since 2005).
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants
9:45 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Giants (moved from+153 to +135)
The Giants came up bigly for wiseguys last night, beating the Dodgers 3-2 as +134 dogs (SF received only 33% of bets). Los Angeles is a powerhouse and San Francisco is terrible, so the Dodgers "have to" bounce back and win tonight, right?
As always, sharps aren't falling victim to the Gambler's Fallacy.
Los Angeles opened as a heavy -166 road favorite. Despite receiving nearly 80% of bets, the line has tanked to LAD -134. This sharp reverse line movement is a clear sign that wiseguys got down hard on the Giants (23% bets, 46% dollars, +153 to +135).
Goodfellas crushed San Francisco at +152, +142 and +135, triggering three bet signals across the market. The fact that sharps kept hitting the Giants despite the payout getting worse indicates heavy wiseguy confidence. We haven't seen a single conflicting play (or buyback) on the Dodgers.
The Giants also fit the profitable Bet Labs PRO system Betting Against the Public (+170.77 units, 10.3% ROI since 2005).
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