MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Nationals-Padres, 2 Other Friday Games

MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Nationals-Padres, 2 Other Friday Games article feature image
Credit:

Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Diego Padres first baseman Eric Hosmer (30).

  • Wiseguys are celebrating "Fade the Public Friday" with three moneyline plays tonight.
  • Sharps are getting down hard on Reds-Phillies (7:05 p.m. ET), Yankees-Indians (7:10 p.m. ET) and Nationals-Padres (10:10 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.

Sharps split their two plays yesterday, losing the Tribe moneyline but cashing the Nats-Padres over. Now it’s on to “Fade the Public Friday,” which has historically been the best day of the week for professional bettors.

With Average Joes finishing their work weeks and getting their latest paychecks, the betting market is flooded with casual money, leading to a heightened contrarian edge for wiseguys.

After analyzing Friday’s stacked 15-game schedule using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action coming down on a pair of MLB games.


>> All odds as of 2:30 p.m. ET.  Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.


Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.


Cincinnati Reds (28-33) @ Philadelphia Phillies (35-27)

Tyler Mahle (2-5, 4.26 ERA) vs. Zach Eflin (5-5. 3.02 ERA)
7:05 p.m. ET

Sharps sure do love the Red Legs tonight.

The game opened with the Phillies listed as -150 favorites. Currently 65% of bets are backing Bryce Harper and Co., yet we’ve seen the line absolutely plummet to Phils -117.

In a vacuum, a heavy line move might not be indicative of sharp action. If a team is getting a majority of bets and the line moves in its favor, that’s often considered standard movement, with books adjusting the line toward the popular side in order to limit liability and entice betting on the opponent.

It’s when you see a big line move toward the unpopular side that should raise alarm bells. That’s exactly what we’re seeing here.

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed wiseguys crush Cincinnati at +130, triggering a pair of steam and reverse line moves that dropped the Reds all the way down to +108.

According to our Bet Labs database, underdogs receiving less than 50% of bets with at least 20 cents of reverse line movement and a total of 8.5 or higher have won +105.93 units with a 10.4% return on investment (ROI) since 2005.

Sharp angle: Reds (moved from +138 to +108)

New York Yankees (39-22) @ Cleveland Indians (31-31)

Domingo German (9-1, 3.66 ERA) vs. Zach Plesac (0-1, 1.46 ERA)
7:10 p.m. ET

Casual bettors place wagers based largely on gut instinct and bias. They love betting popular teams, winning teams, favorites and backing the better starting pitcher.

The Yankees check off all the boxes tonight. So our course the sharps are selling high on the Bronx Bombers.

This game opened with New York listed as a short -110 road favorite. Currently 74% of bets are hammering the Yanks because they’re the “better team” at a cheap price. Sharps sat back and let the public move the line toward New York, then hammered the Tribe at an inflated plus-money price.

We’ve tracked six different steam and reverse line moves on the Tribe coming between +120 and +106. We haven’t seen a single conflicting move (or buyback) on the Yankees.

If you add it all up, we’re essentially seeing a sharp line freeze on Cleveland, with massive sharp action dropping the line down to virtual pick’em despite heavily lopsided betting on New York.

For those who think it will be a one-run game but aren’t sold on the Tribe winning, we do have a Bet Labs PRO system match on the Indians runline (+1.5, -148).

The Contrarian Runline Against Elite Teams system has won at a 60.4% clip, posting +78.36 units won with a 9.1% return on investment (ROI) since 2005.

Sharp angle: Indians (moved from +122 to +104)

Washington Nationals (28-34) @ San Diego Padres (32-31) 

Erick Fedde (1-0, 2.55 ERA) vs. Nick Margevicius (2-6, 5.40 ERA)
10:15 p.m. ET

Last night the Nationals put up four runs in the top of the first, but were blanked the rest of the way, losing a 5-4 heartbreaker to the Padres. Both sharps and squares like Washington to bounce back with a win in tonight’s Game 2.

This late night moneyline opened with San Diego listed as a short -111 home favorite, and the Nats as +103 road dogs.

Currently 67% of bets are grabbing the plus-money with Washington, indicating public support. However, the Nats are also receiving 83% of dollars, indicating heavy money from pro bettors.

We also noticed Goodfellas get down hard on Washington when it was at even money (+100), triggering market-wide steam.

This heavy one-sided action forced oddsmakers to flip the Nationals from dogs (+103) to slight favorites (-107).

This spot has been a cash cow for wiseguys this season, as non-division road favorites have gone 121-69 (63.7%) so far in 2019, winning +21.68 units with an 11.4% ROI.

Sharp angle: Nationals (moved from +103 to -107)

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