MLB Tuesday Weather: Excellent Hitting Weather in Chicago and Missouri

MLB Tuesday Weather: Excellent Hitting Weather in Chicago and Missouri article feature image
Credit:

Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chicago Cubs firstbaseman Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber.

  • Strong hitting weather can be found across the Midwest, as Rockies-Cubs, Reds-Cardinals and Red Sox-Royals are all looking like a hitter's paradise.
  • Using The Action Network's betting tools, we've looked at how these conditions may impact the over/under.

Colorado Rockies (J. Hoffman) at Chicago Cubs (K. Hendricks)

8:05 p.m. ET

Weather Rating: 70

We got ourselves a ballgame at Wrigley tonight, but not just any old ballgame. Tonight’s Rockies-Cubs game has the highest Weather Rating this year at Wrigley Field! Winds are blowing out to center (something that yielded a 63% win rate for overs at Wrigley) and the temps will be in the mid-70s.

In 21 games with such a rating dating back to 2014, pitchers have averaged a -4.4 Plus/Minus on DraftKings — which is quite awful. Hitters, on the other hand, are up +2.02 — darn bloody good.

Since there are only 21 games with a Weather Rating of 70 or higher here, I decided to manually sift through the data to see how over/unders have done. There must be a reason why oddsmakers wait until the morning of the game to post the total, right? Here are the total runs scored for the games and whether they went over or under:

  • 11 – over
  • 9 – under
  • 12 – over
  • 21 – over
  • 23 – over
  • 17 – over
  • 23 – over
  • 5 – under
  • 12 – over
  • 10 – under
  • 12 – over
  • 14 – over
  • 12 – over
  • 8 – under
  • 5 – under
  • 18 – over
  • 6 – under
  • 15 – over
  • 6 – under
  • 1 – under
  • 17 – over

In the end, we get 12.24 runs per game, with overs posting a 13-8 record. Looks good to me.

This over/under opened at 10 shortly after 9:15 a.m. ET and you better believe I took the over. It only took about 5 minutes to move to 10.5.

Cincinnati Reds (L. Castillo) at St. Louis Cardinals (G. Cabrera)

8:15 p.m. ET

Weather Rating: 74

As you travel further south and west, deeper into the heart of Tornado Alley, you’ll reach St. Louis.

Cincinnati is putting its best arm on the hill in Luis Castillo, while St. Louis is hoping Genesis Cabrera’s second start goes better than his first. Last time out, he went 3.2 innings allowing five runs (three earned), two walks and a homer. On the bright side, he did strike out five batters, which is something he’ll want to do tonight. Marky pitching tip to all you pitchers out there — try and strike out every hitter when the wind is blowing out (as if you weren’t trying to do that already).

Unlike in Chicago where the wind is blowing out to dead center, this game will have 10 mph winds blowing out to left. There will also be a decent chance of showers and storms throughout the game, which could lead to a lengthy delay like we saw the other night.

This over/under saw some sharp activity on the under to take it from 9 to 8.5, but was steamed back up to its opening number shortly after 8 a.m. ET.

Boston Red Sox (E. Rodriguez) at Kansas City Royals (G. Sparkman)

8:15 p.m. ET

Weather Rating: 76

A little further into Tornado Alley and we stumble upon the Red Sox-Royals game, which offers the highest Weather Rating of this trio.

Boston has had its troubles hitting against top teams like the Astros, Yankees and Rays, but has mashed otherwise. Against all other teams, the Sox are averaging 6.12 runs per game. Can Glenn Sparkman and his sub-6 K/9 survive the Boston bats?

Kansas City features weather quite similar to its Missouri counterpart, with 10 mph winds (blowing to center here) and chances of storms.

Kauffman hasn’t been a great ballpark in which to take the over historically with winds blowing out, but does boast a perfect 6-0 record this year. It’s actually one of the worst parks at which to take the over in any situation, with just a 48.2% win rate since 2005 per Bet Labs.

The over/under is up a peg higher, as this bad boy opened up at 10/10.5 and can now be found at 10 throughout the market. Similar to St. Louis, there has been sharp activity on the under despite the great weather. I would, however, be surprised if it closed below 10.