Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mets first baseman Wilmer Flores (4) celebrates with teammates after delivering a walk-off RBI.
Betting odds: Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets, 7:10 p.m. ET
- Pirates (Ivan Nova): +101
- Mets (Zack Wheeler): -111
- Over/under: 8
Bet to Watch
It’s a fairly rare sight to see the public fading a home favorite, but that’s what’s happening to the Mets (of course) tonight.
A -111 favorite at Citi Field, New York has attracted only 36% of bettors at the time of writing, but has jumped the fence from its opening number of +103, creating an edge for any bettors willing to overlook the ugliness of this play.
Sure, the Mets are 32-45 to the Pirates’ 37-42, and given New York’s walk-off win last night — its first victory in eight games — it certainly feels like a game where the team with the better record should bounce back, hence the public’s support of Pittsburgh.
But looking back using Bet Labs‘ historical data, that hasn’t been the case.
When a home favorite is seeing fewer than 40% of bets and coming off a win against a better opponent, that team has gone 291-204 since 2005, winning 28.9 units for bettors (5.8% ROI).
That’s not all, though.
For starters, this is a non-division game. What’s that have to do with anything? Well, with more familiarity comes a greater chance for a close game, which benefits the underdog. So it’s only logical to assume that less familiarity would help the favorite.
Sure enough, adding the non-divisional filter to the above trend brings the record to 200-107, +52.2 units, and a 17% ROI.
What’s more, the Mets’ line, as mentioned, jumped from +103 to -111. Considering the low support behind New York, it’s safe to assume the line move was a result of sharp action.
Filtering for teams that saw at least five cents worth of line movement in their favor brings the system record to 142-58, +53.8 units, and an ROI of 26.9%.
The pick: Mets -111
All data as of 10:15 a.m. ET. For live info, check out our MLB live odds page.
Editor’s note: The opinion on this game is from the individual writer and is based on his research, analysis and perspective. It is independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.