Saturday’s MLB Over/Under: Can Tyler Glasnow Slow Down the Red Sox?
Credit: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tyler Glasnow.
Betting odds: Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
- Over/Under: 9
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Probable Pitchers: Tyler Glasnow (1-2, 3.97 ERA) vs. David Price (12-6, 3.75 ERA)
Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 80-52-3, +22.45 units
Yesterday’s Result: Tigers-Twins Under 8.5, Boyd vs. Gibson (loss)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
Well, only one day after receiving a very fortunate break in my Thursday night play, the betting gods quickly took it right back in dealing a bad beat — my third in the last eight days.
Last night’s Tigers-Twins under 8.5 lost with one strike to go, thanks to .180-hitting Ronny Rodriguez and Twins manager Paul Molitor, who inexplicably went with Matt Magill to close out the game. Those are the most painful beats, but instead of dwelling on them, let’s get into Saturday.
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In any given season, pursuing an under at hitter-friendly Fenway Park can be a daunting task. In 2018, when the Red Sox are baseball’s highest-scoring team by a wide margin, it may border on lunacy.
However, in a pitching matchup consisting of two talented arms capable of posting a shutout, the under merits some serious consideration.
Price is one of the pitchers going in the second contest of this three-game set, and the rhythm he’s currently in bodes well for the under. The 2012 AL Cy Young Award winner enters tonight’s game having delivered five consecutive quality starts, matching his longest such streak of the season.
In his last outing, he enjoyed arguably his best showing of the year when he fanned 10 Orioles over six innings while allowing five hits and no walks.
Overall, Price is having another nice season in Boston with a 3.75 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. He’s also produced a desirable 134/39 K/BB ratio in his 23 starts, spanning 134.1 innings.
But the key to being able to trust him Saturday is that he will face his old club, the Tampa Bay Rays, against whom he has performed very well since being dealt away four years ago.
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: David Price.
Four of Price’s assignments this season have come against his former team and he has notched a 2.10 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in those meetings. Furthermore, he’s limited Tampa to a minuscule .200 batting average over 25.2 innings.
He’s simply continuing a trend that has been prevalent since the 6-foot-5 southpaw left Tampa Bay, as he’s notched a 3.32 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and .210 BAA in 12 career starts (and one relief appearance) against the Rays.
Additionally, under backers should be excited about the lack of success the current Rays have had against Price. In fact, every hitter on the team right now has combined to hit 16-for-96 (.167!) against the 11-year veteran. Most notably, Carlos Gomez is 1-for-23 (.043), Matt Duffy is 3-for-21 (.143) and Kevin Kiermaier is 3-for-14 (.214) against Price.
The elephant in the room, of course, is trying to pull this out despite the presence of baseball’s most dangerous lineup, as the Red Sox have slugged their way to the top of the standings.
Even so, I think we can get just enough out of a rejuvenated Glasnow, who has thrived since coming to the Rays in the Chris Archer deal at the trade deadline.
Glasnow didn’t earn a decision in any of his first three starts with his new club, but he’s still exhibited the talent that made him such a highly touted prospect for years with Pittsburgh.
He’s put up a 2.25 ERA and 0.75 WHIP thus far with the Rays, but most impressive of all, he’s amassed a whopping 20 strikeouts in just 12 innings, compared to only three walks. With Tampa Bay stretching him out, we can expect him to go more deeply into ballgames.
I’ve noticed the line has gone down in some places to 8.5, so make sure you get this one in as soon as possible, especially if you can at 9. Even if you’re unable to get action on that number, it’s still an under worth taking.
Play: UNDER 9 (-125)