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Wake and Rake: Braves-Marlins Driving Massive Sharp vs. Public Disagreement


Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jose Urena

  • With four of today's MLB games off the board, public bettors have jumped on tonight's Atlanta Braves-Miami Marlins matchup.
  • Sharp bettors are also finding value in this game.
  • Using the betting tools at The Action Network, we can quickly diagnose how wiseguys are betting this game.

Wake and rake now has drastically new meaning.

Over the past four weeks, I’ve been out on paternity leave following the birth of my second child. For any of you with kids who remember that “newborn fog,” consecutive weeks with very little sleep will throw your sports betting routine into a tailspin.

However, thanks to the betting tools available at The Action Network, I continued to wake and rake with my bets in one hand while football-holding a baby in the other.

Luckily, the strategies we’ve used successfully in this column come in very handy for those of us with time constraints and sleep-deprivation issues. By monitoring ticket counts, public money and professional action, we can quickly break down which matchups are offering value and get down in profitable situations.

Now that I’m back at work for the first time in nearly a month, the same tools I took advantage of during my leave are also pointing toward tonight’s Atlanta Braves-Miami Marlins (7:10 p.m. ET) matchup as one attracting heavy attention from sharp bettors.

Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Full Sports Betting Glossary

>> All odds as of 9:30 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.

Atlanta opened as a -131 favorite at against Miami and is garnering 72% of all moneyline tickets wagered. While the number of bets are clearly backing the Braves, the percentage of dollars wagered actually favors the Marlins, who are receiving 63% of real money.

Not only does this bets vs. dollars discrepancy point toward potential value with the Marlins, but Sports Insights’ Bet Signals — which track sharp action in real time across the sports betting market — have also triggered a Reverse Line Move and a Steam Move on Miami. This tells us that wiseguys across the market have already taken two bites out of the Marlins thus far.

That’s a big reason Miami’s opening line of +111 moved down to +103 at the time of writing, despite public money flowing on Atlanta.

Whenever there’s noticeable disagreement between sharp and public bettors, I’ll tail the professionals and grab Miami at +103.

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