Marky’s Thursday Forecast: Khris Davis Primed for More Dramatic Homers

Jul 26, 2018 1:26 PM EDT
  • The Athletics look to finish off a four-game sweep in Texas with the help of a slate-leading 73 Weather Rating.
  • The Brewers-Giants game has the only sub-50 Weather Rating at 38.
  • Rain is possible at a few parks, but will be far less of a factor than it has been the past few days.

For a stretch, the Athletics were quietly winning ballgames and catching up to the Mariners in the race for the second wild-card spot. But there’s nothing quiet about what they’ve done the past few games in Arlington.


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  • Game 1: 15-3 blowout win
  • Game 2: 13-10 extra-inning win after coming back from a 10-2 deficit
  • Game 3: 6-5 win, come back from 5-1 deficit, go-ahead homer with two outs, two strikes

Khris Davis has homered in each game, including a three-run homer in extra innings to cap off the game two win and two homers yesterday. Does Ma Nature have more homers in store for him today?

Our Weather Rating distills the hitter-friendliness for a particular game into one number. It is a proprietary Fantasy Labs model and shown on a scale of 0 to 100. The Weather Rating does not account for potential rainouts; rather, it simply examines all relevant atmospheric conditions (temperature, altitude, wind speed, humidity, and so on) to determine how batted-ball distance will be impacted.

Highest Weather Ratings

  • Athletics at Rangers: 73
  • White Sox at Angels: 71
  • Mets at Pirates: 67

At 73, the Weather Rating isn’t crazy high for a game in Texas, but still much better than an average game in Oakland. Davis’ 46% fly-ball rate over the past year is great for an environment such as this one … which we’ve clearly seen over the past few days. The total has dropped from 11.5 to 11, but is still the highest of the day by a full run.

In LA, the Weather Rating is the second-highest the park has experienced all season. The total has risen from 9 to 9.5 at BookMaker for this 4 p.m. ET matinee.

In Pittsburgh, Nick Kingham and the torrid Buccis host Steven Matz and the dilapidated Mets. Temperatures in the low 80s will help the ball fly in what some may not know is the sixth-highest ballpark in the league at more than 700 feet above sea level.

Lowest Weather Ratings

  • Brewers at Giants: 38
  • Nationals at Marlins: 50

The Giants game is the only one of the day below 50. I can’t say that I’m all too surprised considering just four games all season have had a Weather Rating above 50 at AT&T Park. The total of 8 is the lowest of the day.

Conveniently enough, the Weather Rating at Marlins Park is currently 50 with the roof set to be open. Showers in the area tonight might force the Marlins to close the roof eventually, which would set the rating to … 50.

No other game has a rating below 58.


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Rain

We’ve had a wild week of weather with rain delays, rain-shortened games, games that started but eventually got postponed, etc. Today may feature some rain delays, but it shouldn’t be half as bad as the past few days.

The following three games have a risk for passing storms or showers.

  • Mets at Pirates
  • Twins at Red Sox
  • Phillies at Reds
Credit:

David Banks-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Oakland Athletics outfielder Khris Davis.

Follow Mark Gallant on Twitter
@marky_money

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