Sunday Night Baseball Betting Preview: Yankees Go For Sweep Over Red Sox

Jun 02, 2019 12:25 PM EDT
Credit:

USA Today Sports. Pictured:

  • Our MLB crew breaks down the Sunday Night Baseball matchup between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox.
  • See their analysis and best bets for the SNB matchup, featuring CC Sabathia vs. David Price.

SNB Betting Odds: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

  • Red Sox odds: -120
  • Yankees odds: +110
  • Over/Under: 10
  • Probable starters: David Price (2-2, 2.83 ERA) vs. CC Sabathia (3-1, 3.48 ERA)
  • First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET on ESPN

>> All odds as of noon ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets


The New York Yankees will go for the sweep of their rival Boston Red Sox on Sunday night.

A win would give the Yankees a 10.5-game lead over the defending champs in the AL East. Why is that significant? Well, only two teams have come back to win a division after trailing by more than 10 games since 2000:

  • 2006 Twins (trailed by 12.5 games on May 27)
  • 2012 Athletics (trailed by 13 games on June 30)

Let’s take a closer look at Sunday night’s matchup, starting with both starting pitchers. We’ll also cover each bullpen, any potential umpire effect, betting trends then close with our favorite bets.

Scouting the SNB Starters

Price has pitched to a career 15-14 record with a 4.90 ERA and just 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings in more than 250 innings pitched against the Yankees. At the new Yankee Stadium, Price owns an 8-8 record with a 4.83 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP over 21 starts.

His strikeout-to-walk ratio in those road starts (2.22) is well below his career average (3.77) and is easily his worst in any stadium (minimum two starts).

He was blown out in both games there last season, losing 11-1 and 10-1, surrendering 14 total runs and eight home runs over 8.2 innings.

Current Yankees hitters own a .310/.361/.520 triple slash line against Price over 352 at bats. Gary Sanchez is 6-for-15 with five home runs, 11 RBI and four walks against the southpaw.

Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Gary Sanchez, David Price

Price’s ERA and fielding independent metrics are presently at their best indicators since his 2015 season. After showing a 5% decline in first-pitch strike rate and a 2% decline in swinging strike rate in 2018, those categories have regressed to 2015-2017 levels (67% and 12%) this season.

There’s an easy tweak that tracks with those changes. Price started throwing his cutter 8% more often last season than in 2017. However, he’s reduced the cutter’s usage by 10% in 2019 while increasing his rate of changeups to a career high (28%).

His struggles at Yankee Stadium cannot be overlooked, but Price is also pitching better than he has in a few years.

Sabathia owns a 18-13 record with a 4.14 ERA and 1.331 WHIP in 42 starts (263 IP) against the Red Sox.

Since the beginning of the 2016 season, he’s 6-1 in 10 starts with a 2.97 ERA against Boston. But he has just a 45:24 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 57.2 innings, suggesting that he’s been a bit lucky.

The biggest concern with Sabathia is that his average velocity is down a full 3 mph over last season (91.6 mph to 88.5 mph). His strikeout minus walk rate is also down 3.5% from 2018, and his strikeout to walk rate is flat at 2.0.

He’s also allowing more hard contact, up from 28.8% career to 34%, with a barrel rate (8.9%) nearly double his career mark (4.7%).

CC started throwing a cutter in 2016 in order to reinvent himself. After throwing the pitch 31% of the time for two years, he’s increased its usage to more than 40% from 2018-2019.

Sabathia is trying to get quick outs with weak contact, but a 6.27 FIP and 5.50 xFIP suggests that he can’t keep this up forever. — Sean Zerillo

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