Best Super Bowl 54 Value Bets: Are the Patriots a Smart Super Bowl Play?


Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New England Patriots cornerback Jason McCourty

Sep 11, 2019, 10:50 AM EDT
  • The Patriots (+400) are the favorites to win Super Bowl 54 after Week 1.
  • We ran 10,000 simulations of the 2019 NFL season to determine if there is value betting the Patriots right now.
  • We also identify two other teams with clear value to lift the Lombardi Trophy in February.

One week into the season, the Patriots look like the best team in football. New England trounced Pittsburgh, beating the Steelers, 33-3 — the fourth-biggest margin of victory in Week 1 by a defending Super Bowl champion ever.

The scary part for the rest of the league: This may be the most talented Pats team in the Brady-Belichick era. Josh Gordon, Julian Edelman, Antonio Brown and Sony Michel will give defensive coordinators nightmares, while Stephon Gilmore and Dont’a Hightower anchor an improved defense.

The oddsmakers at PointsBet list the Patriots as +400 favorites (risk $100 to win $400) to win the championship. The Action Network’s NFL model also sees New England as the most likely Super Bowl champion. According to 10,000 simulations, Brady & Co. lift the Lombardi Trophy 17.8% of the time.

If the model and the market agree that the defending champions are the best team, we should all bet the Patriots to win Super Bowl 54, right?

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
Follow John Ewing on Twitter

Top Stories