2019 NFL MVP Odds Tracker: Lamar Jackson’s Chances Skyrocket After Week 1

Sep 11, 2019 07:45 PM EDT

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Lamar Jackson.

  • Lamar Jackson's incredible Week 1 performance has caused his 2019 NFL MVP odds to move from 50-1 to 10-1.
  • Other big risers include Tom Brady and Deshaun Watson, who both sit at 12-1.
  • Baker Mayfield is one of the week's biggest losers, as his trendy Browns looked terrible against the Titans.

Lamar Jackson’s MVP odds are not bad for a running back.

After tossing five touchdowns vs. the Dolphins, the Ravens’ quarterback has jumped from 50-1 to 10-1 to win the 2019 NFL MVP. He’s nearly a third of the way to his season-long touchdown pass over/under and has the early leg up in the standings over the AFC North preseason favorites, the Steelers and Browns.

Tom Brady, whose odds had fallen substantially during the offseason, is tied for the fourth-best odds at 12-1. He made a big leap from 25-1 to 14-1 after the Antonio Brown trade and was bumped up a bit more following the Pats’ commanding win over Pittsburgh.

Though it was in a losing effort, Deshaun Watson’s performance against the Saints has caused him to move from 20-1 to 12-1. He set the Texans up for the win, but his defense did him dirty at the end.

Baker Mayfield, who was one of the biggest risers of the offseason, took a big hit after the Browns’ ugly loss. After topping out at 14-1, he’s back down to 30-1.

Both NFC North QBs from the Thursday night opener fell after their poor offensive showing, with Aaron Rodgers going from 14-1 to 20-1 and Mitch Trubisky going from 40-1 to 100-1.

Here are all of the latest odds from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Click on the date to sort.


Preseason Notes

  • The reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes (+400) is the only player towards the top of the list whose odds did not move at all throughout the summer.
  • Other than Andrew Luck, the players whose implied odds dropped the most are Aaron Rodgers (from +800 to +1400, -4.4% IP), Tom Brady (+1200 to +2500, -3.9% IP) and Drew Brees (+1000 to +1600, -3.2% IP).
  • Jared Goff and Deshaun Watson (+6000 to +2000, +3.2% IP) are the biggest implied-odds risers, followed by Baker Mayfield (+2500 to +1400, +2.9% IP) Derek Carr (+10000 to +2500, +2.8% IP).
  • Saquon Barkley’s rise from +8000 to +3000 makes him the favorite running back in the league, followed by Alvin Kamara (+6000), Christian McCaffrey (+6000) and Ezekiel Elliott (+6000).
  • Aaron Donald, Khalil Mack and Myles Garrett (+10000) are the most highly ranked defensive players, but none of their odds have moved all offseason.

NFL MVP Betting History

Over the past decade, quarterbacks have dominated the MVP circuit. Running backs were once a more popular choice, winning seven times between 1991 and 2006, but Adrian Peterson’s 2012 season is the only non-QB MVP season since then.

If oddsmakers had a say in the voting, quarterbacks would command every possible vote considering they are capable of moving the line upwards of six points while a non-QB seldom moves the line even one point.

Historical odds via sportsoddshistory.com

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