NFL Week 2 Pick ‘Em Pool Confidence Ratings: Best Straight Up & ATS Picks

NFL Week 2 Pick ‘Em Pool Confidence Ratings: Best Straight Up & ATS Picks article feature image
Credit:

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dolphins mascot

  • Sean Koerner breaks down the best NFL Pick 'Em picks for Week 2, featuring 1-to-32 ratings for against-the-spread and straight-up picks.
  • Be sure to check out the downloadable spreadsheet at the bottom to get customized advice based on the spreads used in your pool.

Editor’s note: This story has been updated to reflect the news that Sam Darnold (mono) will not play on Monday Night Football.

Whether you’re playing pick’em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick ’em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.

Let’s quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 2 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than those from PointsBet, which we use below.

NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Ratings Methodology

These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.

To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the “true” odds are for every matchup.

In theory, sportsbooks’ lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).

Now let’s start with my SU ratings for Week 2 then wrap it up with ATS.


Go To: Full SU Ratings | Custom ATS Ratings


1. Patriots

Matchup: at Dolphins
Confidence Rating: 91.1%

2. Ravens

Matchup: vs. Cardinals
Confidence Rating: 83.1%

3. Texans

Matchup: vs. Jaguars
Confidence Rating: 74.3%

4. Chiefs

Matchup: at Raiders
Confidence Rating: 72.9%

5. Panthers

Matchup: vs. Buccaneers
Confidence Rating: 71.4%

6. Browns

Matchup: at Jets
Confidence Rating: 66.8%

T-7. Packers

Matchup: vs. Vikings
Confidence Rating: 62%

T-7. Titans

Matchup: vs. Colts
Confidence Rating: 62%

T-7. Cowboys

Matchup: at Redskins
Confidence Rating: 62%

T-10. Rams

Matchup: vs. Saints
Confidence Rating: 60.3%

T-10. Steelers

Matchup: vs. Seahawks
Confidence Rating: 60.3%

12. Chargers

Matchup: at Lions
Confidence Rating: 58.6%

13. Bills

Matchup: at Giants
Confidence Rating: 55.2%

14. 49ers

Matchup: at Bengals
Confidence Rating: 53.5%

15. Bears

Matchup: at Broncos
Confidence Rating: 51.7%

T-16. Falcons

Matchup: vs. Eagles
Confidence Rating: 50%

T-16. Eagles

Matchup: at Falcons
Confidence Rating: 50%

18. Broncos

Matchup: vs. Bears
Confidence Rating: 48.3%

19. Bengals

Matchup: vs. 49ers
Confidence Rating: 46.5%

20. Giants

Matchup: vs. Bills
Confidence Rating: 44.8%

21. Lions

Matchup: vs. Chargers
Confidence Rating: 41.4%

T-22. Seahawks

Matchup: at Steelers
Confidence Rating: 39.7%

T-22. Saints

Matchup: at Rams
Confidence Rating: 39.7%

T-24. Redskins

Matchup: vs. Cowboys
Confidence Rating: 38%

T-24. Colts

Matchup: at Titans
Confidence Rating: 38%

T-24. Vikings

Matchup: at Packers
Confidence Rating: 38%

27. Jets

Matchup: vs. Browns
Confidence Rating: 33.2%

28. Buccaneers

Matchup: at Panthers
Confidence Rating: 28.6%

29. Raiders

Matchup: vs. Chiefs
Confidence Rating: 27.1%

30. Jaguars

Matchup: at Texans
Confidence Rating: 25.7%

31. Cardinals

Matchup: at Ravens
Confidence Rating: 16.9%

32. Dolphins

Matchup: vs. Patriots
Confidence Rating: 8.9%


Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings


Against the Spread Confidence Ratings

I’ve outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Tuesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.

1. Dolphins

Spread: +19 vs. Patriots

2. 49ers

Spread: +1.5 at Bengals

3. Cardinals

Spread: +13 at Ravens

T-4. Jets

Spread: +6.5 vs. Browns

T-4. Falcons

Spread: +1.5 vs. Eagles

T-4. Jaguars

Spread: +9 at Texans

T-7. Redskins

Spread: +4.5 vs. Cowboys

T-7. Seahawks

Spread: +4 at Steelers

T-7. Raiders

Spread: +8 vs. Chiefs

T-7. Broncos

Spread: +1.5 vs. Bears

T-11. Packers

Spread: -3 vs. Vikings

T-11. Chargers

Spread: -2.5 at Lions

T-11. Giants

Spread: +2 vs. Bills

T-14. Titans

Spread: -3.5 vs. Colts

T-14. Rams

Spread: -3 vs. Saints

T-14. Panthers

Spread: -6.5 vs. Buccaneers

T-14. Buccaneers

Spread: +6.5 at Panthers

T-14. Colts

Spread: +3.5 at Titans

T-14. Saints

Spread: +3 at Rams

T-20. Bills

Spread: -2 at Giants

T-20. Vikings

Spread: +3 at Packers

T-20. Lions

Spread: +2.5 vs. Chargers

T-23. Chiefs

Spread: -8 at Raiders

T-23. Steelers

Spread: -4 vs. Seahawks

T-23. Bears

Spread: -1.5 at Broncos

T-23. Cowboys

Spread: -4.5 at Redskins

T-27. Browns

Spread: -6.5 at Jets

T-27. Texans

Spread: -9 vs. Jaguars

T-27. Eagles

Spread: -1.5 at Falcons

30. Ravens

Spread: -13 vs. Cardinals

31. Bengals

Spread: -1.5 vs. 49ers

32. Patriots

Spread: -19 at Dolphins


Custom Confidence Ratings

Your league might be using different odds, in which case, you’ll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.

Note that you’ll want to make sure to add the “-” in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column M.

Here’s an example of what the sheet looks like:

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