How Our Model Projects Super Bowl Odds, NFL Playoff Chances & Win Totals for All 32 Teams

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Getty Images. Pictured: Ezekiel Elliott, Patrick Mahomes, Michael Thomas

In honor of the 2020 NFL schedule release, we simulated the season 10,000 times with our model to project how it’s likely to unfold.

Does our model like the Chiefs’ chances of repeating as league champs? How many games does it expect Tom Brady to win in Tampa Bay?

Let’s dig into the model’s projections for all 32 teams, including win totals, chances to win their division, make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl.


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Arizona Cardinals

  • Projected Win Total: 8.25
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 36.70%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 13.80%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 1.80%

Atlanta Falcons

  • Projected Win Total: 7.54
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 27.10%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 10.40%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 1.00%

Baltimore Ravens

  • Projected Win Total: 10.64
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 87.20%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 61.70%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 14.30%

Buffalo Bills

  • Projected Win Total: 8.3
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 56.10%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 40.10%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 2.00%

Carolina Panthers

  • Projected Win Total: 5.97
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 7.60%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 2.40%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.10%

Chicago Bears

  • Projected Win Total: 7
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 22.40%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 12.30%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.40%

Cincinnati Bengals

  • Projected Win Total: 6.55
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 16.80%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 3.20%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.00%

Cleveland Browns

  • Projected Win Total: 7.18
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 27.40%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 5.90%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.30%

Dallas Cowboys

  • Projected Win Total: 9.54
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 88.00%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 61.00%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 4.90%

Denver Broncos

  • Projected Win Total: 6.93
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 24.60%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 6.10%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.10%

Detroit Lions

  • Projected Win Total: 7.87
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 39.90%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 23.10%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 1.30%

Green Bay Packers

  • Projected Win Total: 8.04
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 42.20%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 24.10%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 1.80%
Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers

Houston Texans

  • Projected Win Total: 7.22
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 28.10%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 12.00%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 1.20%

Indianapolis Colts

  • Projected Win Total: 9.35
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 70.20%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 43.60%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 5.80%

Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Projected Win Total: 6
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 11.30%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 3.60%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.10%

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Projected Win Total: 10.79
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 91.50%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 75.70%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 18.70%

Los Angeles Rams

  • Projected Win Total: 8.28
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 37.60%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 16.30%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 2.20%

Los Angeles Chargers

  • Projected Win Total: 8.01
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 43.20%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 15.30%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 1.00%

Miami Dolphins

  • Projected Win Total: 7.34
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 33.60%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 23.90%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.60%

Minnesota Vikings

  • Projected Win Total: 8.66
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 62.60%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 40.40%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 2.80%
Carlos Gonzalez/Star Tribune via Getty Images. Pictured: Dalvin Cook

New England Patriots

  • Projected Win Total: 7.8
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 44.60%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 29.30%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 1.50%

New Orleans Saints

  • Projected Win Total: 10.12
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 84.90%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 57.70%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 10.60%

New York Giants

  • Projected Win Total: 6.47
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 13.50%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 6.90%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.10%

New York Jets

  • Projected Win Total: 5.94
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 13.10%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 6.60%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.10%

Las Vegas Raiders

  • Projected Win Total: 6.27
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 14.00%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 2.80%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.00%

Philadelphia Eagles

  • Projected Win Total: 8.23
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 50.80%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 30.40%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 2.60%

Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Projected Win Total: 9.36
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 69.80%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 29.10%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 4.50%

San Francisco 49ers

  • Projected Win Total: 10.31
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 84.00%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 53.70%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 10.60%
Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Jimmy Garoppolo #10 speaks with head coach Kyle Shanahan of the San Francisco 49ers

Seattle Seahawks

  • Projected Win Total: 8.43
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 40.20%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 16.10%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 1.70%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Projected Win Total: 9.11
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 58.50%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 29.40%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 4.20%

Tennessee Titans

  • Projected Win Total: 9.15
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 67.80%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 40.70%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 3.60%

Washington Redskins

  • Projected Win Total: 5.1
  • Projected Odds to Make Playoffs: 3.30%
  • Projected Odds to Win Division: 1.60%
  • Projected Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.00%
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