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Nick Giffen
Nick Giffen
2k followers3 active picks
Last 30d: 11-23-0 (+31.4u)
PJ Walsh
PJ Walsh
29k followers0 active picks
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
NASCAR Betcenter
NASCAR Betcenter
277 followers0 active picks
Last 30d: 0-2-0 (-1.5u)

NASCAR Expert Picks

Dale Tanhardt
10h ago
Last 30d: 8-28-0 (-0.2u)
Chris Buescher +2500
Go Bowling at The Glen
0.5u
Line via DraftKings: Missed the Caesar’s line, but America wins this weekend if Christopher Buescher breaks through on Sunday. Excluding COTA where it was a struggle, Buescher’s runs on road courses have been stout. Finishes of 2nd at Sonoma, 6th at Road America and 10th at Indy (after overcoming his car literally catching on fire) have me high on Christopher as an underdog play. I’m also a believer in momentum. Kevin Harvick couldn’t buy a win over the past two years and after this win at Michigan, he ran through the field at Richmond. Buescher’s momentum after Richmond factors into this as well. Consider some Top 5 or Top 10 action as well.
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Greg Matherne
15h ago
Last 30d: 12-23-0 (+12.2u)
Kevin Harvick +140
Go Bowling at The Glen
$100.00
My expected performance metric is not a fan of Blaney this week, while it really likes Kevin Harvick. That alone would make me want to take Harvick here, but beyond that, the current points situation between Blaney and Martin Truex Jr. suggests Blaney is likely to be off the optimal finishing strategy.
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Nick Giffen
18h ago
Last 30d: 11-23-0 (+31.4u)
Cole Custer +380 (Top 10)
Go Bowling at The Glen
1u
At FD: Model shows value here, and I know @jimsannes model shows value here too, so I guess I gotta roll with it.
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Michael McDowell +4000
Go Bowling at The Glen
0.25u
At DK: Model says 3.9% which is much higher than the 2.4% implied odds, so let's roll.
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Jim Sannes
20h ago
Last 30d: 7-20-0 (+9.3u)
Michael McDowell +4000
Go Bowling at The Glen
0.2u
My numbers are showing value on McDowell even at his shortest odds (+3000). I just had to talk myself into it. But seeing him at +4000 pushed me over the edge. The reason I was hesitant is because Watkins Glen is more of a speed-centric track, which puts McDowell in a hole. But his average running positions the past three road-course races are 5th, 9th, and 10th, and he started in the top 7 for all 3 races. We know McDowell is going for the win as it's his only path to the playoffs. If you're questioning McDowell's upside (fair!), I'd show value on any top-10 bet of +160 or longer. But +4000 is just too long for me to pass even with my sizable reservations.
2
Greg Matherne
23h ago
Last 30d: 12-23-0 (+12.2u)
Kevin Harvick +3000
Go Bowling at The Glen
0.32u
What are the odds Harvick goes back to back to back for the second time in his career? I’d say it’s around the 3.23% implied odds of this +3000 bet. If I’m willing to bet Christopher Buescher here I need to be willing to bet Harvick as well in my opinion. Harvick has had plenty of pace recently and it’s not like he has been bad at road courses this year, he has been slightly above field average in speed at road courses, but has managed finishes of 11, 4, and 10, along with a late race wreck at Indy although admittedly he wasn’t running very well at that point. Harvick has won here before, he is running very well right now, this is worth a play at 30/1. I was going to make this .4, but BetRivers limited me and wouldn’t approve more than this.
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Jim Sannes
1d ago
Last 30d: 7-20-0 (+9.3u)
Chris Buescher +2500
Go Bowling at The Glen
0.3u
Available at FanDuel. I have Buescher at 4.5% to win, more than a half percentage point above implied here. And I think my model might be too low on him. His speed at Sonoma came following a tire test at this track in the spring, so he has more Next-Gen experience at Watkins Glen than almost anybody. Buescher needs a win, so he will be on the optimal strategy. The model and the narrative align to make Buescher a good bet.
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Greg Matherne
1d ago
Last 30d: 12-23-0 (+12.2u)
Chris Buescher +2500
Go Bowling at The Glen
0.5u
I missed the boat at 30/1, hesitated and then it was gone. Is 25/1 enough? It’s borderline, but Christopher has been fast at road courses all year and is coming off a 3rd place finish at Richmond, so he has momentum of sorts. Hard to say half a unit is a sprinkle, but it’s a sprinkle of sorts.
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Nick Giffen
1d ago
Last 30d: 11-23-0 (+31.4u)
AJ Allmendinger +2500
Go Bowling at The Glen
0.4u
At DK: 25 for dinger at his best road course? Yes please.
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