My expected performance metric is not a fan of Blaney this week, while it really likes Kevin Harvick. That alone would make me want to take Harvick here, but beyond that, the current points situation between Blaney and Martin Truex Jr. suggests Blaney is likely to be off the optimal finishing strategy.

At FD: Model shows value here, and I know @jimsannes model shows value here too, so I guess I gotta roll with it.

My numbers are showing value on McDowell even at his shortest odds (+3000). I just had to talk myself into it. But seeing him at +4000 pushed me over the edge. The reason I was hesitant is because Watkins Glen is more of a speed-centric track, which puts McDowell in a hole. But his average running positions the past three road-course races are 5th, 9th, and 10th, and he started in the top 7 for all 3 races. We know McDowell is going for the win as it's his only path to the playoffs. If you're questioning McDowell's upside (fair!), I'd show value on any top-10 bet of +160 or longer. But +4000 is just too long for me to pass even with my sizable reservations.

What are the odds Harvick goes back to back to back for the second time in his career? I’d say it’s around the 3.23% implied odds of this +3000 bet. If I’m willing to bet Christopher Buescher here I need to be willing to bet Harvick as well in my opinion. Harvick has had plenty of pace recently and it’s not like he has been bad at road courses this year, he has been slightly above field average in speed at road courses, but has managed finishes of 11, 4, and 10, along with a late race wreck at Indy although admittedly he wasn’t running very well at that point. Harvick has won here before, he is running very well right now, this is worth a play at 30/1. I was going to make this .4, but BetRivers limited me and wouldn’t approve more than this.

Available at FanDuel. I have Buescher at 4.5% to win, more than a half percentage point above implied here. And I think my model might be too low on him. His speed at Sonoma came following a tire test at this track in the spring, so he has more Next-Gen experience at Watkins Glen than almost anybody. Buescher needs a win, so he will be on the optimal strategy. The model and the narrative align to make Buescher a good bet.

I missed the boat at 30/1, hesitated and then it was gone. Is 25/1 enough? It’s borderline, but Christopher has been fast at road courses all year and is coming off a 3rd place finish at Richmond, so he has momentum of sorts. Hard to say half a unit is a sprinkle, but it’s a sprinkle of sorts.

At DK: 25 for dinger at his best road course? Yes please.