NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are out for Week 4 of the 2025 season.
These NFL rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed concept overview. You can also check out our season primer to understand how to use it to bet on the NFL.
When there is a large difference in luck between two teams, there has been proven success in betting on the unlucky team.
When the Luck Score in a game is 1.454 or higher, unlucky teams are 146-102-7 against the closing spread — the hardest line to beat. That equates to a 58.9% cover rate when pushes are removed over a sample size greater than 240 games!
In Week 3, the lone unlucky team in one of these games — the New York Jets — covered against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4.5 points, improving Luck Sides to 3-3 ATS on the year, but with the unlucky team covering by an average of 3.7 points over the six games.
Luck Totals kicked in during Week 3. The weak Luck Under went 0-1 to the under, while the two strong Luck Unders went 1-1 to the under, and the strong Luck Over went 1-0 to the over.
Overall, that puts weak Luck Totals at 0-1 and strong Luck Totals at 2-1 on the season.
Week 4 sets up for an interesting week, as the top two teams in the Luck Rankings face off on Sunday in the "Luck Bowl." Here's how our NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 4, and be sure to check back on Wednesday, when our Predictive Analyst, Dr. Nick Giffen, breaks down Week 4 luck-based games.
