Thursday MLB Odds, Preview, Prediction for Angels vs. Orioles: Back Underdog Baltimore to Triumph (Thursday, August 26)
Greg Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Austin Hays #21, Cedric Mullins #31 and Anthony Santander #25,
- Los Angeles and Baltimore finish their three-game series Thursday at Camden Yards.
- The Orioles finally ended a 19-game losing streak in Wednesday's game, but send one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball to the mound.
- Mike Ianniello breaks down below what number he's looking to grab Baltimore at for a potential upset.
Angels vs. Orioles Odds
|Time||1:05 p.m. ET|
Almost as shocking as WrestleMania XXX, the streak is … OVER! The Baltimore Orioles finally picked up their second win in the month of August after losing 19 straight games. The steak was the longest losing skid of any team this season, and the longest in the league since 2005. How bad has it been? The Orioles were only able to cover a +1.5 run line in one of their 19 losses.
While the Orioles rest at the bottom of the standings with the worst record in the league, it hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing for the Angels either. During August, Los Angeles has gone 11-12 and is two games below .500 on the year.
Now that the Baltimore losing streak is finally over, could they possibly begin a winning streak and ride that momentum through the short turnaround on Thursday afternoon?
Barria Trending Downward for Angels
The Angels will start Jamie Barria and it has been a struggle for the 25-year-old to secure his spot in the starting rotation. After making his Major-League debut in 2018, Barria has bounced back and forth between the show and Triple-A in each of the last four seasons.
This will be just the sixth start and eighth MLB appearance for Barria this year. He made two one-off appearances in relief early in the season before being called up and added to the rotation at the end of July. His first two starts went great, pitching into the seventh innings in each, going 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA.
Since then, things have progressively gone done hill. In his three starts this month he lasted six innings, then three, and only two in his last outing. After his promising start, he is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in his last three outings.
The Angels offense was expected to fall off a cliff after the injury to superstar Mike Trout in May. Despite it now looking like Trout might not return this season, the Halos’ offense has actually be able to hold water at league average.
Los Angeles ranks 13th in runs per game, 15th in wOBA and 12th in wRC+. This offense has largely been carried by Shohei Ohtani, who leads the league with 40 home runs and ranks second with a .420 xwOBA and 165 wRC+.
Akin’s Struggles Have Been Mighty
After making his MLB debut and six starts last season, Keegan Akin (LHP) was unable to grab ahold of a starting spot in this Orioles rotation out of spring training. He eventually was called up in May, but it is pretty hard to say he has taken advantage of the opportunity.
A former second-round pick in 2016, Akin has been one of the worst starting pitchers in the league. He has made 18 total appearances, 11 of them being starts. Akin has yet to earn a win, posting an 0-8 record with a 7.92 ERA. He ranks in the bottom 10% of the league in xBA, xwOBA, and xERA.
Despite the long losing streak, the Baltimore offense surprisingly hasn’t been complete inept. Now they haven’t been great obviously, but they aren’t completely in the basement. Since the winless streak began, the Orioles rank 20th in the league in wOBA and wRC+, both actually ahead of the Angels over that stretch.
Thursday afternoon will see two of the game’s worst starting pitchers. They are both still very young, but they have struggled early in their careers. Akin’s current ERA of 7.92 is the second highest mark in the entire league for any pitcher with at least 50 innings pitched.
However, his xERA is more than two full runs lower at 5.76 and lower than Barria who has a 6.31 xERA this season. Barria’s xBA and xwOBA against are both higher than Akin’s expected numbers.
Despite the Orioles long losing streak, Baltimore ranks 20th over that stretch in wOBA and wRC+, while the Angels offense has been even worse, ranking 25th in wOBA and 23rd in wRC+.
This line opened with the Angels at -120 and Baltimore at +100 before moving to Los Angeles -130 and the Orioles +120. With two pretty much equally bad pitchers on the mound, the Angels offense isn’t hitting the ball well enough to warrant a -130 favorite.
The idea of betting on Baltimore to win two games in a row after their play this month makes me a little queasy, but I think the opening lines better reflect what this matchup should be.
This game is a stay away from me, but at +120, I would lean Baltimore. If the Orioles number got up to +130 that would probably be a buy point for me.
Pick: Baltimore ML (+130 or better)