MLB Betting Notes: Duffy, Gausman Look To Rebound

MLB Betting Notes: Duffy, Gausman Look To Rebound article feature image

One of the fun things about the first part of the MLB season are the funny-looking numbers. We’ve got some weird-looking ERAs out there thanks to some funky first starts by some highly-reputed pitchers.

Today’s guide gives you some food for thought on four divisional matchups, and we will be updating it throughout the day with market information and other pertinent analysis. What a great way to spend a Friday.

  • Kansas City Royals (+189) @ Cleveland Indians (-211), 4:10 p.m. ET
  • Baltimore Orioles (+154) @ New York Yankees (-171), 7:05 p.m. ET
  • Chicago Cubs (-135) @ Milwaukee Brewers (+122), 8:10 p.m. ET

Kansas City Royals (+189) @ Cleveland Indians (-211) | O/U: 7.5
4:10 p.m. ET
Danny Duffy (0-1, 11.25 ERA) vs. Carlos Carrasco (1-0, 7.94 ERA)

Windians: Cleveland has won eight consecutive regular-season starts with Carrasco on the mound. The Indians have outscored their opponents by 5.4 runs in those outings. – John Ewing

Rebound Potential: Duffy and Carrasco both brought frowns to fantasy owners in their respective first starts. Duffy barely stayed in the positive numbers with 3.6 DraftKings points, while Carrasco managed 10.55 at his $10,100 price tag. It may not be the best time to get down heavy on Carrasco in the DFS world. While the Royals offense has been abysmal, Kansas City also doesn’t strike out at all. The Royals have struck out by far the least of any team on the young 2018 season. – Mark Gallant

Duff Man: Danny “Bury Me A Royal” Duffy didn’t cover himself in glory in his first start of the year. The 29-year-old southpaw allowed five runs on seven hits – including three homers – and a pair of walks in four innings. After facing just 10 batters through the first three innings, Duffy imploded in the fourth and that was all she wrote. It was a little concerning for the Royals’ de facto ace, but he did touch 93 on the gun early in the start – a good sign after a shoulder issue forced him out of his last spring start.

It’s not easy to trust a pitcher after a start such as the one Duffy stitched together last week, but it was one very weird inning against three strong ones for the California native. Let’s give him another chance. – Michael Leboff

Baltimore Orioles (+154) @ New York Yankees (-171) | O/U: 9.5
7:05 p.m. ET
Kevin Gausman (0-1, 13.50 ERA) vs. CC Sabathia (0-0, 1.80 ERA)

Beware the Winds, Kevin: About five years ago, the Orioles looked like they had a dynamic duo in the works with Gausman (pictured above) and Dylan Bundy both drafted No. 4 overall in back-to-back seasons. Neither has exactly wowed so far, but Bundy has two great starts so far this season. Gausman, however, will be looking to put his first start behind him. He served up a dong on a platter to Brian Dozier on his first pitch of the season, the first of three he’d allow in four innings. He may want to focus on keeping the ball on the ground against Murderer’s Row 2.0 because the winds will be blowing out. – Mark Gallant

Velo Watch: Velocity this, velocity that. You may get sick of hearing about velocity by the time the season’s over, but it’s important, and ‘The Gas Man’ has been lacking in the speed department this year. Last season, Gausman was averaging about 95 mph with his fastball, and in his first start of 2018 he was sitting around 92. You could chalk this up to being committed to his slider and his two-seamer, but it’s still worth keeping an eye on considering he got banged up by the Twins in his first start. – Michael Leboff

Owning the O’s: The Yankees dominated the Orioles at home last season, going 8-2 straight-up and winning by 5.6 runs. – John Ewing

Owned By The O’s: Sabathia hasn’t looked particularly comfortable in his last two starts against Baltimore. In those two outings, the big lefty allowed 12 earned runs, five homers and a .340 batting average against in 11 innings.  – Evan Abrams

Chicago Cubs (-135) @ Milwaukee Brewers (+122) | O/U: 9
8:10 p.m. ET
Kyle Hendricks (0-0, 1.50 ERA) vs. Brandon Woodruff (0-0, 5.40 ERA)

The Right Stuff: Brandon Woodruff came along nicely as a prospect for the Brewers and has the look of a solid back-end of the rotation pitcher. In 2016, Woodruff put together a stellar campaign at Double-A Biloxi, pitching to a 3.01 ERA, 2.79 xFIP and 9.82 K/9 in 113.2 innings. He backed that up with a decent campaign at Triple-A Colorado Springs, who play in a hitter’s park in a hitter’s league, and earned himself a call-up to the show. The former 11th-round pick didn’t set the world on fire in his first taste of Major League action, mainly because he wasn’t striking out as many batters as he did in the Minors, but he kept his walk-rate in check. If Woodruff can smooth out his mechanics, which in turn will limit his mistakes, he’s got the stuff that can play and at times, dominate.  – Michael Leboff

Trend To Know: In Kyle Hendricks’ career as a starter he is 53-29-18 (64.6%) on the first five innings moneyline in the regular season. However, almost all of that damage has come at home compared to the road:

Hendricks’ First Five Innings ML Career

Home 32-9-8 (78%) +11.7 units
Road 21-20-10 (51.2%) -3.2 units — Evan Abrams

Photo: Mitch Stringer, USA Today Sports