MLB Daily Betting Model, 4/1: Playing the Over/Under in Bad Weather
David Berding, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jake Bauers
Operation “Fade the Cubs” paid dividends this weekend.
On Saturday night, the Texas Rangers came back from down 6-3, scoring two runs in the seventh inning, before taking the lead in the eighth inning on a Joey Gallo barrel.
The Rangers offense erased two additional three-run deficits on Saturday, initially on Delino Deshields Jr.’s first career grand slam (his 15th home run in nearly 1,400 career at bats), and again on Nomar Mazara’s two-run triple, before a blast from the criminally underrated Asdrúbal Cabrera put Texas back in front:
Texas ultimately won the game on a walk-off wild pitch, the perfect ending to such a wacky and wild contest. Though their pitching and defense is subpar, their offense looked overwhelmingly patient and powerful against the Cubs.
There should be a lot of shootouts down in Texas in 2019, especially as the summer heats up during the final season at Globe Life Park in Arlington.
Recapping the Model’s Weekend
My singular goal here is to give you the information to identify potential value in these games.
All four moneyline recommendations for yesterday (Baltimore, Miami, Seattle, Texas) won outright. The Orioles and Marlins won for the second consecutive day, while the Mariners took three out of four games against Boston (all recommended by the model).
The only recommended total for 3/31 (CLE/MIN over 7.5) also cashed in.
We also continue to see positive Closing Line Value, as every ML play I made yesterday ultimately moved in the correct direction: Texas (+130 to +120); Kansas City (-110 to -128); Oakland (-110 to -124); Cleveland (-110 to -111).
On Deck for Monday 4/1
Cleveland (up to -150) is the only recommended money line play thus far for the first 5 innings (F5) of the game.
That’s still a bit too steep of a price for me to pay, as I am hesitant to lay anything over -160 (roughly a 100 win pace). I’m likely in at -140 on that.
The total over 7.5 in that Cleveland vs. Chicago game is the only recommended full game total today, but the weather in that contest should be abysmal. I played the total last night, with my full game projection calling for 8.7 runs, but am obviously less confident after seeing the weather today.
At the time of publishing, two-thirds of tickets, and 78 percent of the money is on the over in that game, but the total hasn’t budged.
There are four recommended full-game moneyline plays for today based upon opening lines: Detroit at the NY Yankees; Baltimore at Toronto; San Francisco at the LA Dodgers; and Oakland hosting Boston.
My Bets & Potential Picks for April 1
Thus far, I have locked in:
- Cleveland / Chicago White Sox, Over (7.5, +100)
- Oakland (+115) Game ML
- Detroit (+185) Game ML
- San Francisco (+175) Game ML
Baltimore’s game moneyline moved to +150 at my local book, and I no longer see value at that number.
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 4/1: Moneylines & Over/Unders
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.