Braves-Mets Betting Preview: Should You Trust Jacob deGrom At Home vs. Atlanta?
Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
- Jacob deGrom takes the mound Friday hoping to snap the Mets' five-game losing streak against the NL East leading Braves.
- Using Bet Labs, Evan Abrams analyzes deGrom's betting value for Friday's matchup.
Betting odds: Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
- Braves odds: +120
- Mets odds: -130
- Over/Under: 7.5
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
>> All odds as of Thursday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets
Jacob deGrom has made 158 total starts in his six seasons with the New York Mets. In those starts, the Mets are 82-76 (51.9%), losing bettors $958 on a $100 per game basis. In our Bet Labs database, which dates back to the 2005 regular season, deGrom is the third-least profitable starter for the Mets, ahead of just Pedro Martinez (40-39 w/Mets) and Matt Harvey (49-59 w/Mets).
Since deGrom’s first start with the Mets back in 2014, only Matt Harvey has been less profitable for bettors out of New York’s rotation.
Over the last two seasons, the Mets are 114-129 (46.9%), which ranks 20th in baseball. When their ace Jacob deGrom takes the mound in that span, New York is 19-28 (40.4%), losing bettors $1,214 in those 47 starts.
In that span, no other Mets starter has lost bettors more than $400 and Steven Matz (+$342), Noah Syndergaard (+$122), Jason Vargas (+$83) and Zach Wheeler (+$13) all have actually been profitable for bettors to make it even worse.
One of the main reasons behind deGrom’s horrific record over the last two seasons is the Mets bullpen behind him.
Through Wednesday, New York’s bullpen has accumulated an ERA of 5.12, with opponents hitting .263 against them, including 36 blown saves. All three of those stats rank third-worst in baseball since the start of 2018.
So, what does that tell us? Maybe we should focus on the first five innings.
In Jacob deGrom’s career, he is 37-25-14 (59.7%) on the first five innings moneyline at home. In 2019 though, he is having his first season under .500 in this spot, currently at 1-4-2, losing by 2.4 runs per game.
The one place where deGrom has excelled recently is the first time through the batting order, where he is holding opponents to a minuscule 0.92 ERA, allowing just 12 earned runs in 117.1 innings pitched over the last two seasons.
The way those impressive numbers have translated into profitable betting is via the first five innings over/under.
In 155 career regular season starts, the under is 93-55-7 (62.8%) in the first five innings for Jacob deGrom. Maybe the most impressive aspect of that number, is the damage the under has done when deGrom pitches at home in Citi Field.
In deGrom’s career, the under is 52-23-1 (69.3%) in the first five innings when he pitches at home, making him the most profitable pitcher in the Bet Labs database to the under in that spot.
Over the last two seasons, the under is 18-5 (78.3%) in the first five innings when deGrom starts, going under the total by almost a full run per game — again making deGrom the most profitable pitcher to the under in this spot.
On Friday night, deGrom and the Mets will face off against Mike Soroka and the Atlanta Braves. In 2019, Soroka has been one of the most impressive pitchers in baseball, posting an ERA of 2.07 and a WHIP of 0.97 in 13 starts.
In deGrom’s career at home, he has faced a starting pitcher with an ERA of 2.07 or less in June or later five times prior to Wednesday night and the first five innings under is 5-0, going under the total by 2.2 runs per game.
Here are the results of those games through the first five innings:
2018 vs. Rays: 1-1 score
2018 vs. Cubs: 0-0 score
2015 vs. Dodgers: 1-0 score
2015 vs. Braves: 1-0 score
2014 vs. Marlins: 2-0 score