Cubs vs. Mets MLB Odds, Pick, Prediction: Total Has Value on Thursday
Trevor Brown, Jr./Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Hendricks #28 of the Chicago Cubs.
- The New York Mets sustained another blow to morale with starting pitcher Jacob deGrom's most recent shoulder injury.
- Nonetheless, on Thursday the Mets attempt to complete a four-game sweep over the Chicago Cubs with Marcus Stroman and Kyle Hendricks dueling on the mound.
- MLB betting analyst Mike Ianniello breaks down the matchup in his betting preview below, which includes updated odds, picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Mets on Thursday, June 17.
Cubs vs. Mets Odds
|Over/Under||7.5 (+105 / -125)|
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
If you are a Mets fan, do you even care about this game? Do you care about any game anymore? Right now, the only thing that matters to the Mets is Jacob deGrom’s health.
But for everybody else, New York still aims to complete a four-game sweep of the Cubs on Thursday night. The Mets are 8-2 in their last 10 games and sit atop the National League East standings. They hold the biggest division lead in MLB.
Chicago had won six out of seven games prior to this series with New York. The Cubs’ bats have been up-and-down throughout most of the season, and right now the club’s hitting is certainly in the midst a downturn. Chicago has only scored seven total runs in the last three games against New York.
It was a brutal start to the season for Kyle Hendricks (RHP), but he has finally settled in and pitched better lately. Through his first five starts of the year, he had a 1-3 record, 7.54 ERA, and he averaged just 4.5 innings pitched. Hendricks allowed 10 home runs in his first five games.
Then, Hendricks flipped a switch. During his last eight starts, he is 7-1 with a 3.12 ERA and has averaged 6.5 innings per outing. Hendricks has won six straight and lasted at least six innings in each game. He gives up a lot of hits — ranking in the bottom-5% of MLB with a .295 xBA — but the crafty veteran has been able to limit the damage and minimize hard contact.
Chicago’s offense has been more hot-and-cold than a Katy Perry song (that is a fantastic reference in 2008). The Cubs rank 11th in runs per game, 12th in wOBA and 13th in wRC+. They rank just 23rd in batting average but have a penchant for the long ball, ranking fifth in the league in home runs.
Kris Bryant did not play yesterday after being hit by a pitch on Tuesday. He is considered day-to-day as of late Wednesday evening. That’s a huge problem for the Cubs, because Bryant leads the team in runs, hits, doubles and WAR.
Third baseman Patrick Wisdom has been a huge surprise for Chicago this year, batting .322 with a 1.207 OPS. Wisdom also leads the Cubs with a .507 wOBA and 227 wRC+.
New York Mets
After opting out of the 2020 season, Marcus Stroman (RHP) is having the best season of his career. He boasts a sterling 2.33 ERA, and teams are batting just .226 against him.
Stroman has allowed two or fewer runs in 10 of his 13 starts this year and has lasted at least six innings in 10 of his outings. His slider and cutter have both been great this season. Citi Field is always generous to pitchers, and Stroman is 3-1 with 1.88 ERA in five starts at home.
The Mets offense has been relatively average this season, but the bats have finally broken out recently. During the last two weeks, New York ranks seventh in wOBA and wRC+ and has hit the eighth-most home runs in MLB.
New York has battled injuries all season and continues to be without J.D. Davis, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto. Luckily, Jonathan Villar is red-hot, batting .324 over the last 10 games. Additionally, Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso are finally looking like their old selves over the last couple weeks.
Cubs vs. Mets Pick
Both Hendricks and Stroman have a proven track record of success and each has been really solid over the last several weeks. Neither has earned a loss in over a month.
These two starting pitchers each do a great job lasting deep into games. But, when either pitcher exits, each club boasts one of the best bullpens in the league. The Cubs have the best bullpen ERA in baseball and the Mets relievers rank eighth.
Both offenses have been below-average over the course of the season, and neither lineup is at full strength. The Cubs are much worse against right-handed pitchers, ranking 25th in batting average.
Chicago is the second-most profitable MLB team to the under at 27-37-4. Citi Field is one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball, and the under is 18-6-2 in Queens this season.
I like the pitchers to keep these offenses at bay and this total to stay under 7.5.
Pick: Total under 7.5 (-108). Play to under 7.5 (-120).