KBO & NPB Picks & Betting Odds (Saturday, June 27): Can Alcantara, Bears, Cool Down the Dinos With High Heat?
Han Myung-Gu/Getty Images. Pictured: Raul Alcantara
All 26 CPBL, KBO and NPB teams will be back in action on Saturday, for what amounts to a full baseball betting slate — one month out from Major League Baseball’s expected opening weekend.
I had a season-high ten bets on Friday and thankfully managed to grind out a profit after a 6-4 morning — nobody wants to start their day off down ten units. Additionally, I gained closing line value on eight of those ten bets — including all five KBO moneylines — finishing even with one NPB moneyline and the CPBL total.
The line movement in the KBO, from open to close, is still significantly more substantial than the movement in the NPB market, where the opening lines seem pretty sharp and there is likely less action in general, given the lack of coverage here in the United States.
Additionally, the KBO lines have tightened earlier in the day as of late, which is why I have been more aggressive with the timing of my plays, and remain committed to putting these projections out the moment that all KBO pitchers are announced.
I can’t guarantee you victories — that’s up to the baseball gods — but if you want to beat the closing line and put yourself in a good position on these foreign baseball games more than 75% of the time, download and use the free projections at the bottom of this file.
- KBO Year to Date: 76-89 (-7.24 Units)
- CPBL Year to Date: 40-31 (+11.88 Units)
- NPB Year to Date: 9-6 (+3.63 units)
KBO Odds, Picks, Predictions & Betting Model
NC Dinos vs. Doosan Bears
- Dinos moneyline: TBD
- Bears moneyline: TBD
- Over/under: TBD
- Time: 4:00 a.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- BET NOW
Probable Pitchers: NC Dinos (Sung-young Choi ) vs. Doosan Bears (Raul Alcantara)
The Bears held a 3-1 lead in the 8th inning against the Dinos on Friday, but their bullpen allowed seven runs over the final two frames in a 9-3 loss, spoiling another solid start from youngster Jong-gi Park (5.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 5 K).
As I anticipated, the Bears got through to Jae-hak Lee during his second time through their order, and he was lucky to keep the Dinos in the game (4.2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 5 BB, 2 K) before their bullpen shut it down.
The Bears now trail 5-2 in the season series against the Dinos and sit 4.5 games behind in the KBO standings.
They’ll look for Raul Alcantara (3.86 FIP) to give them another quality start on Saturday, and hope that their bullpen doesn’t spoil a potential lead against 23-year-old southpaw Sung-young Choi (8.43 FIP).
FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck.
wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.
Alcantara (7-1, 3.70 ERA) has been dominant over his past three appearances, which includes a win over the Dinos on June 10 (7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 4 K).
He has posted a solid walk rate over two years in the KBO (1.5 BB/9) and increased his strikeout rate from 13.8% to 19.7% this season, after joining the Bears from the KT Wiz.
Alcantara offers atypical velocity relative to KBO hurlers — with the ability to hit 99 mph. He pairs the big fastball with a changeup (86 mph), slider (89 mph) and rare curveball (83 mph):
7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 9 K, 0 BB pic.twitter.com/6sTraE12CH
— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) May 17, 2020
Choi posted a 62:49 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 26 appearances (82.1 IP) in 2019, and he has allowed 16 hits and nine runs in 10.2 innings this year, including a poor start against the Bears on June 9.
I project the Bears as 55.5% favorites for Saturday and I would bet the Bears to -110 (implied 52.4%), which is a 3.1% edge compared to my projection.
Conversely, I would look to bet the Dinos at +141 (implied 41.5%) or better, which is a similar edge compared to my projection (44.5%). Use our betting calculator to find your edge if you have different odds.
If you are patient, you may find value on the Bears later in the day — I would expect public money to flood in on the Dinos as underdogs.
I project the total at 10.22 runs and would bet Over 9 (-102) or Under 11.5 (-112) at a 3% edge.
See all of Saturday’s KBO, NPB, and CPBL projections below, and check back later today for my picks on the Dinos-Bears game, and Saturday’s other baseball games.
NC Dinos vs. Doosan Bears Picks
Full KBO Betting Card for June 27
- Lotte Giants -145 (1 unit)
KBO Year to Date: 76-89 (-7.24 Units)
Full CPBL Betting Card for June 27
- CPBL Year to Date: 40-31 (+11.88 Units)
Full NPB Betting Card for June 27
- Chunichi Dragons +135 (1 unit)
- Hanshin Tigers +157 (1 unit)
- Orix Buffaloes +168 (1 unit)
- Yakult Swallows / Yomiuri Giants, Under 9.5 (-105, 0.5 units)
NPB Year to Date: 9-6 (+3.63 units)
Zerillo’s Baseball Model, June 27
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game moneylines, over/unders, and team totals. A sample of one of the sheets is below: