Freedman’s Favorite MLB Player Prop (Apr. 2): Will Mike Trout Break Out of His Slump?

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

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2019 Year-to-Date Record

448-346-21, +68.96 Units

• NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
• NBA: 228-172-4, +32.96 Units
• NHL: 66-80-7, -7.57 Units
• MLB: 10-11-1, -2.69 Units
• Golf: 4-7-1, -2.35 Units
• NASCAR: 5-8-0, -1.70 Units
• NCAAB: 91-52-8, +26.95 Units
• NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
• Exotic: 23-2-0, +12.64 Units

Freedman’s Favorite MLB Player Prop for Tuesday, April 2: Mike Trout Over/Under 2.5 Hits, Runs & RBIs

• Over 2.5: -135
• Under 2.5: +105

I haven't crushed on MLB props to this point in the season, but I've focused exclusively on pitcher props. I'm going to pivot to batters and see if I can have more success. For strikeout props, see Mark Gallant's pitcher piece.

Tonight we have a large 12-game slate that will close with the Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park (10:10 p.m. ET).

Although it might seem stupid to bet against Angels outfielder Mike Trout, that's exactly what I'm going to do.

Trout is perhaps the best hitter in baseball, and in each season since his 2012 rookie campaign, he's been top-four in AL MVP voting, winning the award twice (2014, 2016).

But Trout has been in something of a slump to open 2019. The season is young, but Trout has just four hits, one run and three RBIs through five games. And in just one of those games has he had more than 2.5 hits, runs & RBIs (HRRBIs).

For his career, Trout has 2.46 HRRBIs per game, and since last season that number has dropped down to 2.31. In his 145 games since 2018, Trout has had two or fewer HRRBIs in 93 games (64.1%).

Mariners pitcher Marco Gonzales isn't great, but he's not notably exploitable with his 3.96 FIP, and he'll perhaps be a little less rusty than the average pitcher at the beginning of the season thanks to the early opening-day start he got in Japan on Mar. 20. While most pitchers have started just one game so far, this will be Gonzales' third.

On top of that, Trout has a Park Factor of just 22 at T-Mobile (per the FantasyLabs MLB Models), and against the left-handed Gonzalez, Trout has negative splits with his -0.045 wOBA and -0.105 ISO differentials.

I'd bet under 2.5 HRRBIs all the way down to -120. And when Trout gets 10 HRRBIs tonight, this bet is going to look really bad.

The Pick: Under 2.5 (+105)

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.