MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees (Tuesday, August 11)

Braves vs. Yankees Odds

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The Braves and Yankees send the back ends of their rotations to the mound on Tuesday to open a fascinating interleague series. Both teams feature top ten offenses, so we could be in store for a high-scoring affair with two below-average starting pitchers on the mound.

Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP  is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.

Atlanta Braves

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

Atlanta's offense has good to begin the season, logging a .328 wOBA and 109 wRC+. The Braves offense doesn't have guy that stands out offensively at the moment, but almost their entire lineup has been above average through their first 18 games. Seven players have a wOBA above .350, so the lineup is a brute to endure as a starting pitcher.

Atlanta ranked in the top 10 of MLB against left-handed pitching a season ago with a .328 wOBA, so they should have no trouble on Tuesday facing a mediocre lefty like Montgomery.

Braves Projected Starter

Touki Toussaint, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Touki Toussaint is out of the bullpen and into the Braves rotation after the Mike Soroka suffered a torn Achilles tendon. He's got a four-pitch arsenal that is decently effective because he can throw any of his pitches at any time in the count. His MLB career hasn't gotten off to a great start with a 4.65 xFIP and he allowed nine runs over his first two starts. However, his xFIP has only been 2.49 through his first 13.2 innings, so he's been a tad unlucky.

He'll have a big challenge going up against the Yankees lineup to today, but if he's able to effectively mix up his arsenal of pitches, he could get through their lineup with minimal damage.

New York Yankees

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

The Yankees have been mashing the ball through their first 16 games, as they lead MLB with a .342 wOBA and 123 wRC+. They've been crushing home runs left and right, with 27 already on the season. Aaron Judge has led the Bronx Bombers with eight home runs and .434 wOBA to begin the season.

Yankees Projected Starter

Jordan Montgomery, LHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Montgomery has been shelled over his first two starts, allowing six earned runs on 11 hits in only 9.2 innings of work. Those two poor outings have led to a 4.63 xFIP to begin the season.

Montgomery has suffered injuries in each of the past two seasons and hasn’t pitched a full season for the Yankees since 2017. He primarily uses his curveball and sinker to get batters out. While his curveball has been effective — producing a 42.8% whiff rate in 2017 — his sinker is a different story.

In 2017, hitters feasted on Montgomery’s sinker, posting a .342 batting average and a .414 wOBA. The Braves ranked 10th against lefties last season with a .328 wOBA, which bodes somewhat ominously for Montgomery on Tuesday.

Bullpens

The Yankees' bullpen should be fully rested for tonight after having the day off on Monday. The Braves bullpen was called on early on Monday when starting pitcher Sean Newcomb couldn't make it out of the second inning. They had to use some of their front end guys, so they maybe stretched a little thin tonight.

Projections and Pick

With the starting pitching matchup and bullpen matchups being fairly even and the Yankees lineup being only slightly better than the Braves without Stanton has led to New York being overvalued on Tuesday. I will be betting the Braves +138 (DraftKings) and I would bet it all the way down to +125.

Pick: Braves +138

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