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Marlins vs. Phillies Odds: Our Prediction For Saturday’s Matchup

Marlins vs. Phillies Odds: Our Prediction For Saturday’s Matchup article feature image

Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Zack Wheeler

  • BJ Cunningham previews Saturday's Marlins vs. Phillies matchup, featuring betting odds and predictions.

Marlins vs. Phillies Odds

Marlins Odds +150
Phillies Odds -174
Over/Under 9 (-114/-106)
First Pitch Saturday, 4:05 p.m. ET

Odds as of Saturday morning and via FanDuel. Get up to a $500 risk-free bet at FanDuel today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

The Phillies open up as big favorites again Saturday against the lowly Marlins. The Marlins pulled off the upset in Game 1 of this series behind a solid 6 2/3rd-inning performance from Sandy Alcantara. The Phillies will need to rebound if they are going to navigate through a loaded NL East and make the playoffs for the first time in nine years.

Marlins Projected Lineup

The Marlins have one of the worst lineups in baseball, though they did add Jesus Aguilar from the Brewers and Corey Dickerson from the Phillies to bolster a lineup that ranked in the bottom-five in most offensive categories in 2019.

Marlins Probable Stater

Caleb Smith, LHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Caleb Smith is a soft-tossing lefty who primarily uses only fastball/slider combination. His fastball averages only 91.6 mph, but did produce a 25.1% whiff rate in 2019, so he does a good job with location all around the zone. His slider is very effective — when he can keep it down in the zone.

Opposing hitters hit only .224 against it in 2019, so if Smith is going to take the next step, he’ll need to utilize his slider more in 2020.

Phillies Projected Lineup

After adding Bryce Harper last season, the Phillies didn’t do much to their lineup over the offseason. They ranked near the middle of MLB last season in most offensive categories, but they were fairly success against fastballs and sliders, which happens to be Caleb Smith’s two main pitches.

Phillies Probable Starter

Zack Wheeler, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Wheeler joins the Phillies after two successful seasons with the Mets. He has an elite fastball with top-end velocity and a lot of movement. In 2019 he added a few more miles per hour to his fast ball and improved his whiff rate all the way up to 27.1%.

Zack Wheeler, Unfair Two Seamer. 😯

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 10, 2020

His slider also took a big step forward in 2019, improving from a 15.1% whiff rate in 2018 to 26.6% a year ago. Hitters had only a .272 wOBA average against it in 2019. If he continues to utilize his slider more in 2020, he could be on his way to becoming an elite starter in this league.

Marlins & Phillies Bullpens

Even though the Marlins are in rebuilding mode, their bullpen is actually pretty solid with the additions of Brandon Kintzler and Ryne Stanek.

The front end of the Phillies’ bullpen is solid, but their back end isn’t that great, so the Marlins bullpen has the advantage in this matchup.

Marlins-Phillies Projections 

Based on the current line, I don’t see any value in this game.

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