MLB Daily Betting Model, 5/22: Another Chance to Back Tampa Bay as a Home Underdog
Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tampa Bay Rays relief pitcher Ryne Stanek
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on May 22 with his model below, and highlights Rays-Dodgers (7:10 p.m. ET) and Phillies-Cubs (8:05 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
There’s afternoon baseball today, so we don’t have time to waste.
Get in that box and get set, a full slate will be coming your way before you know it:
Marcus Stroman, Quick Pitch (after Chavis calls time, to try to mess with Stroman's rhythm). pic.twitter.com/mTipRxogSA
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 22, 2019
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 3-2 against full-game moneylines, and 2-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My tracked plays went 5-3, and I was up 1.15 units for the day.
Tuesday was a positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 23 cents on the Reds F5 moneyline (+135 to +112), 20 cents on their F5 spread (-110 to -130), 22 cents on the Blue Jays F5 moneyline (+145 to +123) 15 cents on the Phillies moneyline (+128 to +113), 9 cents on the Twins F5 line (+100 to -109), and only lost 2 cents on the Rays line (+128 to +130) and 4 cents on the Rangers F5 line (-125 to -121).
On Deck for Wednesday, May 22
The model recommends six full-game moneylines and one moneyline for the first five innings (F5) on Wednesday.
As of writing, the 4% trigger threshold officially marked the Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals (Game 1), Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants, Tampa Bay Rays, and Toronto Blue Jays as the full-game plays. It also likes the Blue Jays as a F5 play.
Baltimore and Kansas City are typical skips for me. The Giants are trending in that direction, but they are a potential play that I am still considering for tonight after Atlanta’s banged up bullpen blew a ninth inning lead on Tuesday.
I will take Toronto in the first half again after its big win over Boston yesterday. Aaron Sanchez has shown an improvement in his swinging strike rates in his last three starts, and left his last outing due to a blister (an unfortunately common occurrence for Sanchez throughout his career).
I have Toronto about 1.1% more likely (48%) to win in the first half than over the full game, so I will play only the F5 moneyline again today; albeit at the same price as the game price.
That leaves the Phillies and Rays, both of whom I like again today.
The Cubs and Phillies have traded blown saves over the past two days, and any game in this series looks to be about 50-50 before home-field advantage is factored in. Tonight, I would line the game at about +110/-110 in favor of the Cubs.
So taking the Phillies at nearly 1.5x on your money is almost no-brainer for me.
Cole Hamels has pitched effectively in 2019, but his xwOBA shows that he has been on point with his career averages since 2015, translating to an expected ERA of over 4.50.
The Phillies will counter with their own lefty, Cole Irvin, who relies on his sinker to generate grounders while mixing in a five pitch arsenal for strikes. Irvin’s best pitch is his changeup.
Cole Irvin's @MLB debut couldn't have gone much better …
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) May 12, 2019
He is very poised, and I’m not expecting Wrigley Field to get under the rookie’s skin tonight. It’s just a question of whether he will be effective enough to match a veteran like Hamels. On paper, he is more than capable.
The Rays are home underdogs again today and facing yet another left-handed starting pitcher. What’s more, Tampa Bay has been extremely profitable as a home underdog.
The Rays are 26-14 (65%) +$2,026 straight up, for a 50.7% return on investment as home underdogs on the moneyline since the beginning of the 2018 season.
Going back to 2005, the Rays are the most profitable home underdogs on the moneyline in our database.
AL Teams have historically dominated Interleague play (54.2% win percentage, 3.2% ROI) but that hasn’t been the case since the start of the 2018 season, as the AL is just 176-196, -$1,719 units against the NL.
However, I still have the fair odds on this game closer to +108/-108 in favor of the Dodgers, and the line has already moved that way after I played Tampa Bay at +130.
The Rays will use Ryne Stanek as an opener today, with Yonny Chirinos likely following him.
Stanek would close for most teams, but the Rays have the luxury of using him both as both an opener and as a fireman during the middle innings:
Ryne Stanek, 97mph Fastball and 89mph Splitter, Overlay. pic.twitter.com/Xa1nAEwc9H
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 18, 2019
Bets (So Far) for May 22
- Cincinnati Reds (-108) F5 Moneyline
- Philadelphia Phillies (+148) Game Moneyline
- Tampa Bay Rays (+130) Game Moneyline
- Texas Rangers (+105) Game Moneyline
- Toronto Blue Jays (+143) F5 Moneyline
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 5/22
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.