MLB Daily Betting Model, 5/17: Should the Giants Be Favored on the Road?
Cody Glenn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Francisco Giants pitcher Jeff Samardzija (29).
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on May 17 with his model below, and highlights Rays-Yankees (7:05 p.m. ET) and Giants-D'backs (9:40 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
It’s a busy day in the Zerillo household, with Preakness handicapping/writing, French Open prep and more, so we’ll skip the preamble and dive right into yesterday’s results and the analysis of today’s model.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 2-1 against full-game moneylines, and 3-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My tracked plays went 3-2, and I was up 0.50 units for the day.
Thursday was a mixed day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 20 cents on the Reds F5 line (-130 to -150) and a couple of pennies on the Cardinals moneyline (+104 to +102), but lost 10 cents on the Rangers F5 moneyline (-115 to -105) and 3 cents on their game moneyline (-102 to +101). I finished even with Detroit’s F5 line (+125).
On Deck for Friday, May 17
The model recommends five full-game moneylines and four moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Friday.
As of writing, the 4% trigger threshold officially marked the Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Miami Marlins, San Francisco Giants, and Tampa Bay Rays as the full-game plays. It also likes the Giants, Rays, Royals, and Tigers as F5 plays.
Per usual, I’m steering clear of the Royals and Marlins, and will also avoid the Tigers who are starting lefty Daniel Norris.
The Athletics and Rays both face left-handed starting pitchers today, and they have been the two most profitable teams against southpaws since the beginning of the 2018 season.
A $100 bettor would show a 17.4% return on their investment. This also won’t be the only time that these two teams face left-handed starters this weekend.
I’ll actually be backing the A’s on the runline against the Tigers. They’re 4-2 against the spread as a favorite facing left-handed starters in 2019, thanks to a plethora of right-handed bats on their roster.
The Rays are an automatic play for me. I personally think that the wrong team is favored in their game against the Yankees.
They’re 17-12 as a favorite (28% ROI) and 20-9 as a dog (21% ROI) against the spread facing left-handed starters since the beginning of last season. They’re 16-13 straight up as a dog, for a 31% ROI on the moneyline.
I also think that the San Francisco Giants should be favored in their game at Arizona. They should be in a good spot tonight as a contrarian underdog in a divisional game, and they have the better starter with Jeff Samardzija facing Merrill Kelly.
Samardzija is enigmatic, but his stats are generally league average, while Kelly’s 2019 batted ball data translates to an ERA of over 6.25.
His curveball (-4.4 runs) and cutter (-2.6 runs) have been hit particularly hard, and he seems to be more effective out of the windup (1.67 ERA, 22/7 K/BB ratio with no runners on) than the stretch (14/10 K/BB ratio with runners on base).
Kelly is also a nibbler and tries to generate weak contact on the fringes of the strike zone. But if his command is even just a bit off, he can implode quickly:
I took the Rays and Giants both on the moneyline, and on the plus-side of the spread for the first half of the game.
Bets (So Far) for May 17
- Oakland Athletics (-1.5, +105) Game Spread
- San Francisco Giants (+0.5, -115) F5 Spread
- San Francisco Giants (+130) Game ML
- Tampa Bay Rays (+0.5, -140) F5 Spread
- Tampa Bay Rays (+108) Game ML (1.0 units)
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 5/17
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.