MLB Daily Betting Model, 5/30: Can Yankees Push Chris Sale to 1-7 Start?
Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chris Sale
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on May 30 with his model below and highlights Yankees-Red Sox (7:05 p.m. ET) and Mariners-Angels (10:10 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
One night after ending up on the right side of one of the worst bad beats of the 2019 MLB season, the baseball gods struck back:
The Mets were leading 8-5 heading into the bottom of the ninth, and the Dodgers scored four runs to win 9-8.
New York peaked with a 98.03% chance to win heading into the bottom of the inning.
Brutal beat for Mets backers… pic.twitter.com/ChHpkdJgGJ
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) May 30, 2019
Brush it off and move on.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 0-3 against full-game moneylines, and 1-1 against moneyline for the first five (F5) innings.
My tracked plays went 4-4, and I down 0.52 units for the day after going 1-3 on sides and 3-1 on totals. That loss from the Mets was a 1.38-unit swing.
I’m 14-4 (+2.39 units) on totals since May 15 by playing them each to win 0.25 units. With the results on those trending upward after a 12-17-3 (-3.62 units) start to the season, I’ll flatten the totals out to win 0.5 units.
Wednesday was a slightly positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 20 cents on the Rays F5 spread (-145 to -165) and 8 cents on the Mets moneyline (+175 to +167), but I lost 15 cents on the Cardinals moneyline (+151 to +166) and a penny on the Astros (-101 to +100).
As for totals, the Astros’ under moved from 9.50 to 9.0, and I gained 13 cents (-102 to -115) on the Rockies Under 11.
I also gained 5 cents on the White Sox Over 9 (-115 to -120), but lost 5 cents on the Marlins over.
On Deck for Thursday, May 30
The model recommends three full-game moneylines and three moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Thursday.
As of writing, the 4% trigger threshold officially marked Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees and Pittsburgh Pirates as the full-game plays. It also likes the Pirates, in addition to the Philadelphia Phillies and Texas Rangers as F5 plays.
The Brewers have taken sharp action this morning and are not a team that I am particularly interested in going against.
Typically, betting against the public in divisional matchups is profitable, and Pittsburgh shows an edge here as a home dog while taking about 30% of the moneyline cash and tickets as of writing.
Ultimately, I’ll pass on backing Joe Musgrove, a guy who I never seem to be on the right side of.
I’m actually going to go the other way on the White Sox, to an extent, and back Cleveland on the F5 spread as I have the Indians projected to win the first half by a full run.
Carlos Carrasco tends to beat up on bad teams, and Chicago barely touched him over two starts already this May (combined 12 IP, 8 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 12 K).
Manny Banuelos is another pitcher I enjoy fading. He owns a 6.68 FIP, a .423 wOBA (bottom 4% in the league) and a .380 xwOBA (bottom 8% in the league).
Over his past four starts, two of which were against Cleveland and one against Carrasco, Banuelos has surrendered 24 runs on 27 hits and 14 walks in 15 innings pitched:
As for the model plays I’m interested in, I’ll take the Rangers and Phillies F5 lines, and the Yankees over the full game against the Red Sox.
Texas’ Mike Minor is 6-3-2 in the first half of games and is a southpaw I have enjoyed consistently backing.
I also took the Mariners F5 line at an edge of over 3%, as I have also enjoyed backing Yusei Kikuchi in the first half (6-3-3) while avoiding Seattle’s self-destructive-bullpen.
I’m right-handed, but maybe I have a thing for crafty lefties:
Yusei Kikuchi, Very Crafty 88mph Wipeout Slider. pic.twitter.com/3HCzWWSuPh
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 4, 2019
The Phillies pick is going a bit against sharp action today, but I see a bigger edge for the Cardinals once this game gets into the bullpens.
Dakota Hudson has succeeded by getting batters to pound his heavy sinker, and other pitches into the ground at a 62% clip:
Dakota Hudson, Wicked 96mph Two Seamer. 😨
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 5, 2018
However, Hudson’s command (4.05 BB/9) still leaves something to be desired for a pitcher who is struggling to maintain a strikeout rate of over six batters per nine innings.
The contact that Hudson does allow isn’t all that soft, either. He has a .354 xwOBA in 2019, projecting to an ERA of over 5.60.
Jerad Eickhoff’s xwOBA is .311, right in line with his career average (.313), equating to an expected ERA of 4.70.
That being said, I do expect both of them to pitch well today, which is also why I like the under in this game, I’m just surprised to find Philadelphia at such a short price in the first half.
Lastly, surprise surprise, I’m finding some value in going against Chris Sale.
On May 19, Sale held showed his second-highest average fastball velocity of the season (94.3 mph), but that declined to 92.9 mph just five days later against the same Astros team.
Sale has averaged just 92.8 mph on his four-seam fastball this season, a full two mph below 2018.
I think those back-to-back 14- and 17-strikeout performances against the Orioles and Rockies were a bit of a misdirect. His slider and changeup were very sharp on those days, but teams who can lay off of his fastball can punish the 2019 version of Sale.
Let’s also not forget the Yankees have a significant bullpen advantage over the Red Sox. I have New York’s projected bullpen about 0.8 runs better than Boston’s on any given night.
For what it’s worth, the Yankees current bullpen ERA is 0.5 runs better than Boston’s.
It’s been extremely profitable for $100 bettors to go against Max Scherzer (10-2, 113.8% ROI), Chris Sale (8-3, 94.8% ROI) and Jacob deGrom (7-4, 60.3% ROI) this season. That is certainly due to regress at some point, but the Yankees remain in a valuable spot tonight nevertheless.
Bets (So Far) for May 30
- Cleveland Indians (-0.5, -135) F5 Spread
- New York Yankees (+138) Game Moneyline
- Philadelphia Phillies (-105) F5 Moneyline
- Seattle Mariners (-115) F5 Moneyline
- Texas Rangers (-143) F5 Moneyline
- Under 10.5, St. Louis at Philadelphia
- Under 12, Arizona at Colorado
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 5/30
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.