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MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Dodgers-Cardinals, 2 Other Monday Games

Credit:

St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Matt Carpenter (13) celebrates with first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (46). Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY

  • Wiseguys are betting three MLB games on Monday, headlined by Los Angeles Dodgers-St. Louis Cardinals (7:45 p.m. ET).
  • Sharps are also getting down on Atlanta Braves-Colorado Rockies (8:40 p.m. ET and Milwaukee Brewers-Los Angeles Angels (10:07 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.

The weekend is over and it’s back to the grind for the wiseguys. While the gambling universe will be fixated on the National Championship game between Texas Tech and Virginia tonight, sharps will stick to their baseball roots and look to capitalize on a small board.

After analyzing Monday’s 10-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action on three MLB games.


>> All odds as of 2 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.


Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.


Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals

7:45 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Cardinals (moved from +111 to +102)

Recreational bettors largely ignore betting percentages, line movement and historical data. Instead, they bet based on gut instinct and recency bias. Take the favorite, the team with the better record and whichever team is playing better as of late.

Sharps know it’s not that easy.

This game is a perfect example. The Dodgers (8-2) are tied for the second-best record in baseball and send Hyun-Jin Ryu (2.08 ERA) to the mound against Miles Mikolas (7.20 ERA) and the 4-5 Cardinals. Hammer LA, right?

The Dodgers opened as short -120 road favorites. Despite receiving nearly 80% of bets, they’ve fallen to -111. Why would the books drop the Dodgers’ line if the public is already all over them?

Because they took in a wave of big money from pro Cardinals bettors.

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed sharps crush STL at +112, +110 and +109, triggering three separate steam and reverse line moves. We haven’t seen a single conflicting move (or buyback) on the Dodgers.

Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies

8:40 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Braves (moved from +125 to +110)

The betting public sees a Colorado (3-7) team “due for a win” that also happens to be at home with its ace on the mound (Kyle Freeland 2.31 ERA). But sharps are buying the Braves (5-4) at a plus-money price.

The line opened at Colorado -135. Currently 54% of bets are laying the short moneyline with the home favorites, yet the Rockies have tanked from -135 to -119. What caused this peculiar line movement?

Follow the money.

Atlanta is receiving only 46% of bets but 77% of dollars — a clear indication that the wiseguy wagers are backing the plus-money dog.

We also tracked two big steam moves on ATL+123 and +115, which kicked off the big movement in its favor.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels

10:07 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Angels (moved from +103 to -103)

The Brewers (8-2) are the second-best team in baseball. A $100 bettor would be up $572 betting Milwaukee in every game so far this season. So of course Average Joes are going back to the Brew Crew well tonight.

But once again, sharps are zigging while the public zags.

This Interleague showdown opened with Milwaukee listed as a short -110 road favorite. Nearly 70% of bets are taking the Brewers, yet the line has moved toward the Angels (+103 to -103).

This is a classic case of sharp reverse line movement. Despite the public loading up on Milwaukee, wiseguys have gotten down hard on Los Angeles (4-6), causing the line to move in its direction.

The Angels also find themselves in a profitable historical spot. They fit the Bet Labs PRO System Bad Team After Win (+159.18 units since 2005). American League teams have also dominated Interleague Play, winning +130.06 units since 2005.

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