MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Rockies-Rays, 2 Other Monday Games
Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tampa Bay Rays center fielder Tommy Pham and manager Kevin Cash.
- Wiseguys are betting three MLB games tonight, headlined by Rockies-Rays (7:10 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also getting down on Astros-Rangers (8:05 p.m. ET) and Giants-Dodgers (10:10 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.
In case you missed it, baseball is back! It’s one of the best sports on which to wager because bettors have to pick only who wins, not who covers. Sharps can turn a profit by focusing on divisional underdogs, betting against the public and taking advantage of windy over/unders. For more betting tips, click here.
After analyzing Monday’s 13-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action on three MLB games.
>> All odds as of 2:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Colorado Rockies @ Tampa Bay Rays
7:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Rays (moved from -138 to -158)
The betting public doesn’t know which way to go with this interleague series moneyline. But wiseguys have taken a clear side.
Tampa Bay (3-1) has the better record and enjoys home field advantage. But how can you pass a playoff team like the Rockies (2-2) at such a juicy plus-money price?
If it looks too good to be true, it almost always is.
Tampa opened as a moderate -138 favorite. Currently moneyline bets are split down the middle yet the line has skyrocketed toward Tampa (-158).
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t budge more than a cent or two if the bets are even. So what caused this movement? Follow the money.
The Rays are getting only 52% of bets but 82% of dollars — a clear indication that sharps are on their side.
According to our Bet Labs database, American League teams have produced +130.75 units in interleague play since 2005.
On top of that, home teams have won 56.4% of their games and produced 19.81 units won when tonight’s home plate ump, Andy Fletcher, calls balls and strikes.
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers
8:05 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (stayed at 9.5)
Drew Smyly is making his first MLB start since 2016 and has to face a stacked Astros lineup. Who cares about the high total. The over is a lock, right?
This over/under opened at 9.5, the highest on the board. Currently 70% of bets are taking the over, yet the line has remained frozen at 9.5. In fact, the juice has been trending under (-120). This indicates under liability despite heavy over betting, with the next move likely being down to 9.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed three separate steam and reverse line moves on the under at 9.5.
The under also enjoys a profitable smart money discrepancy — it’s getting only 28% of bets but 48% of dollars, further evidence of wiseguy support.
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
10:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 8 to 7.5)
One of the best and easiest ways to spot sharp action is to compare the percentage of bets to dollars and then see how the line moved.
This NL West over/under is a perfect example.
Currently 65% of bets are taking the over, but more than 80% of dollars are coming in on the under. Meanwhile, the total has fallen from 8 to 7.5 since opening.
This is a classic case of sharp reverse line movement: Even though the public is hammering the over, the wiseguys got down hard on the under, creating big liability for the books and forcing them to drop the total by a run in order to entice over betting so they can limit their risk
We noticed two steam and reverse line moves on the under 8. We haven’t seen a single conflicting over move (or buyback).