MLB Tuesday Weather: Chase-ing Overs With an Open Roof

MLB Tuesday Weather: Chase-ing Overs With an Open Roof article feature image

Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chase Field.

  • With a Weather Rating of 94, the Braves-Rockies game is boasting the best hitting conditions of the season.
  • At 74, the Rangers-Diamondbacks game has the best non-Coors weather of the year at a ballpark where overs have thrived when the roof isn't closed.
  • For a second straight day, San Francisco has the worst weather, while a couple games in the mid-Atlantic have a slight chance of rain.

April baseball in Denver is a mixed bag. One day it’s 75 degrees with a Weather Rating above 90. The next day has a winter storm watch and six inches of snow in the forecast. Never know what you’re going to get.

Phoenix is similar. Not in the sense that you’re thinking, though. The weather is more or less always the same, but the keyholders to the Chase Field roof can play a huge impact on the game.

A Trip To The Lab

Chase Field has historically been two different beasts depending on whether the roof is open or closed. Tonight, it’s expected to be open.

If we look at Bet Labs, we’ll see that the over has been far better when that hot Phoenix air is let inside.

  • Roof open: 344-290-32 (54.3%)
  • Roof closed: 220-230-19 (48.9%)

The total for tonight’s Rangers-Diamondbacks game has remained at the opener of 8.5, but the juice on the over has risen to -120, suggesting a line move to 9 may be coming.

Highest Weather Ratings 

  • Braves at Rockies: 94
  • Rangers at Diamondbacks: 74
  • Mariners at Royals: 62

Weather Ratings are a proprietary number created by FantasyLabs, which are on a 0-100 scale, with 100 being the best hitting atmosphere and 0 being the best pitching atmosphere. Weather Rating takes into account temperature, wind speed, wind direction, stadium elevation, humidity and atmospheric pressure. 

Coors is really popping tonight with temps in the mid-70s and winds expected to shift from out to right to out to center during the game. Tomorrow’s game at Coors is a totally different story, though — if they even play it. Set for a 1 p.m. local start, temps will be dropping from the upper 40s into the 30s. Potential thunderstorms will shift over to snow later in the day, and a winter storm watch will be in effect. Winds will also be blowing in at about 20 mph … give me the under! And then give me my money back, because the game will be postponed

Ah yes, the aforementioned Chase Field. Very good hitting conditions if I do say so myself. I’m actually surprised they’re keeping it open, as the temperatures will be around 90 degrees. I suppose that’s not that bad for Phoenix, though. This marks the best non-Coors Weather Rating of the season.

Lowest Weather Ratings

  • Padres at Giants: 19
  • Blue Jays at Red Sox: 37
  • Twins at Mets: 38

For the second consecutive day, the San Francisco Weather Rating easily takes the cake for worst of the slate at a measly 19. Lovers of offense should be happy that other cities aren’t joining San Fran in the teens, though. I was personally a bit surprised to see Boston’s rating as high as 37, as those attending the Fenway opener will be dealing with cloudy, raw mid-40s conditions with a right-to-left wind. Fenway is also a park that tends to be on the lower side of the ratings, which is why I was guessing it would be sub-30 when I saw the forecast yesterday.

The total in the Jays-Sox game, which will feature Matt Shoemaker and a perplexing Chris Sale, has actually gone up from 7.5 to 8. Meanwhile, the total at Citi Field is just a meager 6.5. I suppose you could say that deGrom guy has been on a roll.

Inclement Weather

  • Athletics at Orioles
  • Twins at Mets
  • Nationals at Phillies

As was the case yesterday, we have a slight chance of some showers for a few games on the east coast. However, I’d say that there’s less than a 50% chance of a rain delay for all three games combined. If anything, the early stages of the games would be impacted, which could potentially mean a delayed start. Chances of any postponements are basically zero.

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