Ewing: 10 Reasons I’m Betting the Orioles to Upset the Yankees Again
Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Baltimore Orioles shortstop Manny Machado
Betting odds: New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, 7:05 p.m. ET
- Yankees (Sonny Gray): -150
- Orioles (Dylan Bundy): +135
- Over/under: 9.5
With two outs in the bottom of the ninth, Jonathan Schoop hit a walk-off single to give the Baltimore Orioles a 6-5 win over the New York Yankees on Tuesday night. It was a tough loss for recreational gamblers as 79% of moneyline tickets were on the Yanks -230.
Squares, unfazed by last night’s disappointment, are back on the Bronx Bombers in the series finale Wednesday. Nearly 80% of bettors were wagering on New York -150 at the time of writing.
But I’m not one of the 80%. Here are 10 reasons why I’m betting the O’s (in no particular order):
1. Bad Team After a Win
Casual bettors have a hard time believing a bad team, such as the Orioles, can win two in a row. However, historically it has been profitable to wager on losing teams to do just that.
Since 2005, teams that have won 40% or fewer of their games have gone 1,482-1,611 (47.9%) straight-up after a victory. Usually these teams are underdogs, so a $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $17,507 following this system despite the losing record.
2. Manny Machado
The AL All-Star starter at shortstop is arguably the best player on the field. Machado is batting .314 with 23 home runs this season and has smashed in July, hitting .371 with three homers in 10 games.
3. Betting Against the Public
Yankees-Orioles is one of the most-bet games on the board tonight. Add in the skewed betting percentages and this is a great opportunity to fade the public. Since 2005, unpopular (<30% of moneyline tickets) underdogs in heavily bet division games are 734-863 straight-up, returning a profit of $17,335 for a $100 bettor.
4. Strange But True
Motivation is hard to handicap, but there is evidence New York underestimates Baltimore. The Yankees are 4-5 against the Orioles this season and 55-26 against the rest of the league.
5. A Trend
Since 2005, the Yankees have a winning record against the Orioles, but it’s been far from profitable to bet on New York against Baltimore. In fact, no opponent has caused Yankee bettors to lose more money than the Orioles (-$1,613 loss for a $100 bettor).
6. Reverse Line Movement
The Yankees have moved from -155 to -150 even after receiving a majority of moneyline tickets. This is an indication of sharp money on the O’s.
7. Steam Move
Another clue that the pros like Baltimore today is a steam move bet signal that was triggered at Pinnacle, a sportsbook that caters to sharp bettors.
8. 💩 Sonny Gray 💩
Last year’s trade-deadline acquisition has disappointed. Sonny Gray is 5-7 with a 5.85 ERA and has failed to get past the third inning in his last two starts. The Action Network’s Ken Barkley doesn’t expect the pitcher to rebound tonight.
9. Soft Spot
Umping today’s game will be Jim Reynolds. He clearly has a soft spot for bad underdogs. Teams that have won fewer than 40% of their games and are underdogs, such as Baltimore, have gone 32-37 with Reynolds calling balls and strikes. A $100 bettor would be up $1,010 (15% ROI), making Reynolds one of the most profitable umps in the Bet Labs database in this situation.
10. Fade Elite Teams in Division
I tried to warn bettors yesterday.
81% of moneyline tickets on @Yankees -230 vs. Orioles.
Underdogs in division games facing an elite opponent (60% or better) from July-September have gone 350-447-1 straight-up since 2005, +83.44 units (11% ROI). pic.twitter.com/wzjOtEZQNN
— John Ewing (@johnewing) July 10, 2018
There you go, 10 reasons why the Orioles can upset the Yankees and crush the souls of public bettors once again.
The pick: Orioles +135