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Freedman’s Favorite Strikeout Props (Apr. 21): Clayton Kershaw Is Back!


Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Clayton Kershaw.

  • Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring at least one of his favorite bets for each day of 2019.
  • On Sunday, he looks at pitcher strikeout props for the MLB slate.

Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

In this piece, I’m looking at pitcher props for Sunday, April 21. NOTE: I may update this piece throughout the day (but I probably won’t).

For more daily player props, follow me in The Action Network app.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

582-454-36, +78.97 Units

  • NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
  • NBA: 289-215-5, +40.78 Units
  • NHL: 66-80-7, -7.57 Units
  • MLB: 40-48-10, -12.29 Units
  • Golf: 8-8-2, +1.85 Units
  • NASCAR: 10-17-0, -5.97 Units
  • NCAAB: 125-70-12, +38.82 Units
  • NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
  • Exotic: 23-2-0, +12.64 Units

Freedman’s Favorite Pitcher Props for Sunday, April 21

Please note that in some cases I might go against what’s recommended in the FantasyLabs Props Tool and the strikeout projections we have in the FantasyLabs MLB Models.

Kansas City Royals Pitcher Jorge Lopez at New York Yankees

  • Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
  • Pick: Under 4.5 (-103)

Lopez has at least five strikeouts in three of his four starts this year, but he’s massively overperforming expectations. In his seven starts last year, he had fewer than five strikeouts in all but one of them.

Over the past 15 days, he’s actually thrown the ball slower than he has over the past year (93.4 vs. 92.6), and his strike rate is exactly the same (63%). I’m expecting regression, and the Yankees are slightly below the league average with their 8.5 strikeouts per game.

I’d bet under 4.5 to -135.

Los Angeles Dodgers Pitcher Clayton Kershaw at Milwaukee Brewers

  • Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
  • Pick: Over 5.5/6.0

Kershaw looked good in his debut against the Reds, striking out six batters in seven innings on 84 pitches. And since last year, he’s had six-plus strikeouts in 17 of 27 starts (63.0%).

Lines haven’t posted yet for Kershaw, but I’d bet over 5.5 to -180 and over 6.0 to -150.

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

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