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Freedman’s Favorite Strikeout Prop (Apr. 29): Bet Against Kenta Maeda?


Credit: Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kenta Maeda

  • Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring at least one of his favorite bets for each day of 2019.
  • On Monday, he looks at his No. 1 pitcher strikeout prop for the nine-game MLB slate.

Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

In this piece, I highlight my favorite pitcher prop for Monday, April 29, which offers a nine-game slate.

For more daily player props, follow me in The Action Network app.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

679-516-37, +98.18 Units

  • NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
  • NBA: 327-247-6, +40.34 Units
  • NHL: 66-80-7, -7.57 Units
  • MLB: 42-49-10, -11.66 Units
  • Golf: 8-8-2, +1.85 Units
  • NASCAR: 10-17-0, -5.97 Units
  • NCAAB: 125-70-12, +38.82 Units
  • NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
  • Exotic: 74-31-0, +28.25 Units

Freedman’s Favorite Pitcher Prop for Monday, April 29

Please note that in some cases I might go against what’s recommended in the FantasyLabs Props Tool and the strikeout projections we have in the FantasyLabs MLB Models.

Los Angeles Dodgers Pitcher Kenta Maeda at San Francisco Giants

  • Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
  • Over: 5.0 (-143)
  • Under: 5.0 (+110)

I’m betting against the line movement, which is probably a bad idea — but this under looks appealing.

Through five starts, Maeda has notably underperformed, posting career-worst marks with 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings, a 5.09 FIP and a 5.20 ERA. He’s yet to go seven full innings in any game, and not since his first outing has he hit 100 pitches. In just one 2019 start has he had more than five Ks.

And the Giants are in the bottom 10 in the league with 8.6 strikeouts per game: They don’t offer an advantageous matchup.

In his 20 starts last year, Maeda face the Giants twice. In the first start — his first outing of the year — he had a whopping 10Ks. But in the second start he had just two.

There’s a pretty decent chance this will end in a push: He’s had exactly five Ks in three starts this year. But given Maeda’s early-season struggles, I’m fine with betting the under to -130.

But I’d wait to bet this till closer to game time in case the line movement continues and better odds present themselves.

The Pick: Under 5.0 (+110), wait to bet till closer to game time

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

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