Steelers vs. Chargers Odds & Picks: Pitt Have A Chance on Sunday Night Football?

Steelers vs. Chargers Odds & Picks: Pitt Have A Chance on Sunday Night Football? article feature image

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Philip Rivers

  • The Pittsburgh Steelers will roll out their third-string quarterback as near touchdown underdogs on Sunday Night Football.
  • Our experts break down the betting odds for Steelers-Chargers, complete with our projected spread and over/under.

Steelers at Chargers Odds & Picks

  • Odds: Chargers -6.5
  • Over/Under: 41.5
  • Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: NBC

Odds via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

The Pittsburgh Steelers will have to trot out their third-string quarterback on the road in primetime as near touchdown underdogs. But do they have a chance to cover?

Our analysts break down every angle of this Sunday Night Football showdown, featuring a comparison to Sean Koerner’s projected odds and more.

Sunday Night Football Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Chargers

Hunter Henry (tibia) could be making a return for the Chargers after he logged in a full practice on Friday. However, the Chargers stated he’ll be on a snap count if active. Melvin Ingram (hamstring) is listed as questionable after missing practice all week. His potential absence would be good news for the Steelers since he’s top-two on the team in quarterback pressures and hurries.

The Steelers will be without Mason Rudolph (concussion, putting Devlin Hodges under center. They’ve also ruled out James Washington (shoulder), Jaylen Samuels (knee) and CB Steven Nelson (groin). Nelson has been pretty decent in coverage this season, earning a 76.5 coverage graded from Pro Football Focus. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Steelers Defensive Line vs. Chargers Offensive Line

The Chargers are hosting a team traveling across the country that will be starting its third-string quarterback, so why is the line hovering around 6.5-7 with slightly bigger money backing the Steelers?

Their defensive front is good enough to keep them in any game.

In Cameron Heyward (fifth), Stephon Tuitt (sixth) and T.J. Watt (eighth), the Steelers boast three defensive lineman earning top-eight PFF grades at their respective positions. That trio spearheads a defensive unit ranked eighth in pressure rate (26.5%) and ninth in yards per carry allowed (3.9).

Cameron Heyward-Stephon Tuitt-TJ-Watt
Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cameron Heyward, Stephon Tuitt, T.J. Watt

The Chargers offensive line, meanwhile, is ranked fifth-worst in pass-blocking efficiency (81.6%) — a PFF advanced metric that measures pressure and sacks allowed on a per-snap basis — and has surrendered the most QB hits (16). And despite their talent at running back, they’re ranked a middling 17th in running back yards per carry (4.17) due in large part to their O-line allowing runs to be stuffed for no gain or a loss at the 12th-highest rate (21% per PFF).

On top of that, it’s never ideal for an offense to lose its starting center — which can lead to botched snaps, blown protections and the like — but that’s exactly the misfortune that’s befallen the Chargers, who were forced to place Mike Pouncey (neck) on IR this week. That leaves them with only one starting O-lineman who has earned a grade from PFF better than 35th at their respective position (guard Michael Schofield III; 15th).

According to our Bet Labs data, the Steelers are 31-17-2 against the spread as an underdog with Mike Tomlin, while the Chargers are 6-11-1 ATS at home under Anthony Lynn since taking their talents to L.A. back in 2017.

If the Steelers end up squeaking out a cover or pulling off the upset, their prowess along the defensive line will undoubtedly have a lot to do with it. Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Chargers -7
  • Projected Total: 42

In Hodges’ limited action in Week 5, he didn’t appear to be too much of a drop-off from Rudolph. The Steelers will put together a very conservative game plan to limit high-risk throws and hope their defense can keep them in the game.

And on the other side of the ball, the injuries keep piling up for the Chargers.

Look for this line to potentially reach +7.5, at which point it might be worth nibbling on. I think the drop-off between Rudolph to Hodges will be fairly negligible. Sean Koerner

PRO System Match

Despite losing Ben Roethlisberger for the season, the Steelers are a surprising 3-2 ATS. Philip Rivers has been healthy all year but the Chargers have disappointed going 1-3-1 ATS.

ATS records tend to regress to the mean over the course of a season as bookmakers adjust to team performance and public perception. As a result, it’s been profitable to bet teams that have bad ATS records against opponents with winning ATS records.

Following this simple Pro System, bettors have gone 164-101-9 (61.9%) ATS since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $5,398 following this strategy.

Favorites matching this system have been even better going 38-20-1 ATS. The Chargers should win, and history suggests they’re a good bet to cover as well. John Ewing

PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.

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