Texans vs. Chargers Odds, Picks & More
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Philip Rivers
Texans at Chargers Betting Odds
- Odds: Chargers -3
- Total: 49
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: CBS
Odds above as of Sunday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).
Sean Koerner compares his projected spread and total to the market to identify any potential value, while our staff reveals how they’re betting this game.
Sean Koerner’s Projected Texans-Chargers odds
- Projected Spread: Chargers -4
- Projected Total: 46.5
An opening number of -3.5 is always a good way to tell what side sharps are on. If it quickly gets bet down to -3, the sharps are on the dog and wanted to lock such a key number at +3.5. If the line hovers around 3.5 or starts to trend toward -4, it’s a sign the sharps are more in line with the favorite.
So with the line sticking around -3.5 despite 64% of tickets and 83% of money being on the Texans as of writing, all signs point to the sharps on the Chargers, which lines up with my expected line of -4. Look for pass-rushers Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa to wreak havoc on Deshaun Watson, who has been sacked a league-high 10 times. — Sean Koerner
Chris Raybon: Texans +3
The Texans are coming off an ugly performance in which they barely squeaked out a win at home against a rookie QB, while the Chargers fumbled and kicked and threw a close game away against Detroit on the road.
Easy bounce-back spot for the Chargers, right?
I’m not so sure.
Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram will surely wreak their fair share of havoc. But the Chargers’ depleted secondary combined with the Texans’ addition of Tunsil and their healthy top-four wide receiving corps featuring DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Kenny Stills (the No. 1 rated WR by Pro Football Focus through two weeks!) and Keke Coutee — plus Deshaun Watson’s ability to escape pressure and deliver on the run — the Texans should give the Chargers problems.
The Chargers’ ongoing kicking issues make them absolutely liable to not cover, if not lose this game outright.
They’re at home, but so what? It hasn’t been an advantage for them in the Anthony Lynn era, as their 40.0% cover rate in their own building is tied for the sixth-lowest since he took over in 2017. Oh, and by the way, Watson is 6-2 against the spread as a road underdog — the line tends to sell him short in these situations, and it’s been the most profitable spot to back the Texans (Watson is 7-8-1 ATS in all other situations).
Another trend working in Houston’s favor? Road underdogs are 115-93-6 ATS since 2003 when both teams failed to cover in the prior week, including 58-40-2 when +4 or less (per Bet Labs).
I got this at +3.5, but big bets have pushed this line to +3. I would still bet it there, but would consider the Texans’ moneyline if the line goes to +2.5 or lower.
John Ewing: Over 48.5
Thanks to a goal-line fumble and two missed field goals, the Chargers scored just 10 points in their Week 2 loss to Detroit. The Texans also struggled to get their offense going last week — the 13 points they scored were tied for the fewest in a game that Watson has started.
Unsurprisingly, Los Angeles and Houston each went under their totals, so it’s natural that bettors would want to wager on this under. And nearly 60% of bettors are banking on these teams to combine for fewer than 48 points. But history says the over has value.
Since 2003, the over is 480-437-12 (52.3%) in games when both teams went under the previous week.
Oddsmakers know recreational gamblers tend to chase results. If both teams went under in their past game, the bookmakers will shade the total to the under anticipating public money.
This strategy works the best early in the season, when we can take advantage of bettors putting too much emphasis on a small sample of team performances.