PropBetGuy

No injury designation going into the week - even if Bigsby eats into his snap count (and he will), I expect that to be in primarily running downs. Etienne should still get the receiving work. over in 3/5 this season - and this is a sneaky solid spot. The Bears have allowed 5 RBs to clear this line in 5 games (only individual game with non was vs IND - Richardson low target rate to RBs).

Under in 4/5. Another matchup against a team that plays heavy man coverage (Ravens at the 8th highest rate). Ertz has four of Daniels’ 38 targets against zone, and only 1 of 26 completions (7 yards). BAL has allowed long receptions to TEs - but they’ve also faced the gauntlet of TEs (Kelce, Bowers, Ferguson, Kincaid). Ertz’s route tree looks much different than those guys.

Only over in 2/5, but the hits were in each of the last 2. Now no Nico - last season he had 58 and 61 receiving yards in the two games without Collins. Yes, Diggs is here now, but the Pats have been fairly stingy vs slot receivers, and when Diggs does lineup outside, he’ll see a lot of Christian Gonzalez. And tank Dell hasn’t looked 100% quite yet. Schultz has produced in this offense - last season he was over in 12/17, with 6 games with at least 55+ yards. This feels like a spot where he could be featured a bit more. The Pats have allowed some big games to TEs - 53 YPG (8th most), with consecutive big games allowed to Jonnu Smith, Kittle and Conklin. And while Gamescript could/should skew positive for the Texans, I do expect them to dominate time of possession - their defense should handle Drake Maye in his first start. Pats TE defense has fallen off since they lost Bentley, and now will be without Peppers and possibly Dugger again.

Henry under this line in 3/5 - but the over last week came on a last second play when the dolphins were in prevent defense to protect against a Hail Mary. ADOT of 9.5 yards. Maye in at QB - better arm, but the issue of pressure will still exist (Brissett was 2nd most pressured and sacked QB). Texans have been stingy vs TEs - Kincaid with a long catch last week, but before that, no TE had a 13+ yard grab vs HOU.

Over in 4/5. NO has been tough to pass against at 8th in FTN’s DVOA (and we know Lattimore typically gets the best of Mike Evans). And the run defense has been shaky the last few weeks (Barkley 147 yards, Bijan/Allgeier 88, Hunt 102). Should be a game where TB’s run defense (8th in DVOA) keys in on Kamara and makes Spencer Rattler beat them. I have Bucky clearing this with 9 carries, but upside for 10-11.

Simple analysis - he’s over in 5/5 games, and PIT is allowing the most tackles per game, and most tackles per game to LBs. Off-ball LBs vs PIT: Kendricks 10, Speed 13 (and Franklin 9), Henley 12 (and Perryman 9), Singleton 11, and 22 for the three Falcons who rotated.

Under in 2/3, with only 2/10 targets traveling at least 17 air yards - aDOT of 8.8, and is third in the pecking order on deep throws behind McConkey and Johnston. 1st read share of 15% also pales in comparison to those two (30.5% and 29%, respectively). Herbert banged up, and I expect the Chargers to continue to lean on the run game. Palmer lines up outside on 70% of his snaps, so he’s sure to see a lot of Surtain. On the other side, Riley Moss has been solid as well.

Since Singleton went down, Barton has registered 7 and 10 combined tackles in two games, and didn’t come off the field. As an everydown LB last season, he was over this line in 8/12 full games (albeit in WSH). But this should be a solid spot against the Chargers, who will run the ball. An off-ball LB has cleared this line in 3/4 games against LAC, who are allowing more than 15 tackles per game to LBs (per PFF).