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Etienne is over this line in 2/3 this season - averaging a tidy 4.2 YPC, but not really with any explosive runs right now (one rush over 20 yards). I like the Jags to give him the ball, especially with some shaky passing production over the last two games. The Falcons are also allowing 4.2 YPC to opposing RBs (2/3 have hit this against them with a miss by AJ Dillon at 15). And JAC is 8th right now in rush play% in neutral gamescripts (48%) and teams are running at 46% vs ATL in the same situations (6th highest). I also don’t love the Falcons ability to run the ball vs this jags defense, and their passing game hasn’t instilled much confidence. Hard to to envision a situation in which the jags find themselves down by multiple scores late in the game - but even if they do, like last week, a scenario exists for Etienne to still hit this, as he’s been the most consistent part of this offense so far. Reports are that Doug Pederson took over playcalling in the second half last week (which he said was false), but something did change because Etienne got 7 totes in the 3Q (despite being down 17 at half) and the Jags finally put points on the board. Regardless of who is calling the plays, I expect them to establish the run earlier.
Wanted to wait to see how Jackson would be utilized in the run game under Monken - and after three games, we’re seeing very similar splits to last season. Jackson has 16 designed rush plays (5.3 per game) so far, compared to 5.6 per game last season. And predictably, we’ve seen an uptick in overall attempts in the close games the last two weeks (12, 14). I see this game being close, and facing a really, really tough defense that excels both in coverage and with their pass rush, I anticipate Lamar being on the move a bunch. Dating back to last season, Lamar is 11/12 on this line in games decided by 14 points or less, which is where I see this game heading. ^^ Wrote the above before Watson was deemed questionable. Now seeing that he’s “likely” to go, I’m comfortable playing this under the “close game assumption”. Was initially going to be a 1.3u play for me, but will keep it at 1u to reflect the injury risk. Even if Watson doesn’t play, the Browns defense is good enough to give Jackson fits in the pass game - I see him running in any scenario.
T.Boyd o3.5 Recs-109
CIN Team Abbreviation@TEN Team Abbreviation
10/01 5:00 PM
Analysis to come. But the crux of it is that the Titans can’t cover the slot, and Burrow is living on the short throws right now.
Diggs is over this line in 3/3 - and was 2/3 last season vs Miami. Last two Bills games have been very positive gamescripts - expecting this one to stay closer. Plus, Bills still pass happy with a 64% pass play% in neutral game scripts (4th highest, and was at 61% last season). MIA does have some vulnerabilities with their rush defense, but this game profiles as a shootout. Dolphins also running a lot more zone coverage this season, but even if Diggs does get matched up with Xavien Howard, it’s a plus spot. Howard has allowed 16 catches on 22 targets this season.
An incredibly light line for a guy who has ripped off 300+ yards the last two weeks (on 28 and 16 attempts). It’s clear that he’s claimed the RB1 role - and even though it’s tough to trust Sirianni at times, even Miles Sanders had 13+ attempts in 11/17 last season. I don’t see gamescript getting in the way either - I see Howell and WSH struggling to move the ball vs the PHI defense (specifically the pass rush). PHI should continue to dominate the ball (71.3 plays per game is third highest). I have Swift at 15.
8, 7 and 11 tackles this season, and was 5/8 last season before an injury. Expanded, every down role now - and profiles as the leading tackler against the run. I like the matchup here - Bucs will run (49% run rate in neutral game scripts, which is 4th highest through week 3). And in the passing game, Mike Evans gets his nemesis Marshon Lattimore, meaning we’ll likely see more short routes to Godwin, and TE/RB check downs. All of this should spell tackle opps for Werner. 2/3 games vs Bucs have seen a MLB over this line - and the one miss was last week vs PHI, mainly due to their dominating defense.
With Bobby Wagner back in SEA, Jones takes over as the every-down off ball LB this season for the Rams. 9, 10, 9 tackles so far this season, and now gets the Colts who are playing at a blistering pace right now: second lowest seconds per snap (per roto viz) and the 6th most plays per game. Couple this with a combined aDOT of about 6 yards and the willingness to run with both Zack Moss and Anthony Richardson, and I anticipate a lot of action Jones’ way. 4 off-ball LBs have 9+ in 3 games vs IND, and I see Richardson playing as an advantage for this play.
In three games, Stroud has 14, 1 and 20 rush yards. The Steelers allowed QBs over this line in 12/17 last season 2/3 this season (Jimmy G had 7 yards last week). The Steelers are getting pressure on the QB so far this season (30.3% is the second highest through three games) and the Texans o line is very banged up. Stroud should be on the move a bunch, and I like his chances to scramble a few times. Why? The Steelers linebackers are in man coverage at a top 5 rate, which is typically conducive to QB rushes - stroud should be able to escape the pocket a few times with some daylight to run. Plus, Stroud running isn’t something the Steelers will gameplan defensively for, but he is capable.
Palmer was 6/7 without Mike Williams and with Keenan Allen on this line last season, and just came off a 7 target, 4 catch performance. If ekeler plays, he’s likely limited, and the chargers reportedly wanted to bring Quentin Johnston along “slowly” - I see him more as the third option for the time being.
Talked about this game yesterday on Action Island.
T.Conklin o2.5 Recs-158
KC Team Abbreviation@NYJ Team Abbreviation
10/02 12:20 AM
KC -2.5-330
KC Team Abbreviation@NYJ Team Abbreviation
10/02 12:20 AM
DK crushes man coverage - 3.28 yards per route run last season, and he drew 37% of Geno’s targets. Only 13 routes run so far this season, but still at 2.38. The Giants run man coverages at the league’s highest rate, and they really don’t have a great matchup for DK in general (2 rookies on the outside). Love this spot.
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