Bengals vs. Bills Betting Odds & Picks: When to Bet the Over/Under

Bengals vs. Bills Betting Odds & Picks: When to Bet the Over/Under article feature image

Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Andy Dalton.

Bengals at Bills Betting Odds

  • Odds: Bills -6
  • Total: 44
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Odds above as of Thursday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).

The Bills will look to keep momentum after starting the season with back-to-back road victories for the first time in franchise history. Meanwhile, the Bengals are looking for their first win of the season.

Read below to see Sean Koerner’s projected odds, matchups to know, betting picks and more.

Bengals-Bills Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Bills

The Bengals opened the week with nine players on their injury report, including A.J. Green (still) and three offensive linemen: Cordy Glenn, Michael Jordan and Andre Smith, who all missed practice. If those linemen are ruled out, things could get ugly for Andy Dalton considering the Bengals are already allowing the seventh-highest sack rate through the first two weeks.

The most noteworthy injury for the Bills is Devin Singletary, who has missed back-to-back practices. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Bills -6.5
  • Projected Total: 42

The Bills are correctly favored here.

The total opened 1.5 points below my projection but has been bet up to two points higher than my projection with 82% of tickets and 89% of money flooding the over.

I don’t think the market has reached its apex, as it looks like this number could go up to 44.5. Forty-four is a fairly key number, so it’s worth waiting to see if we can get the hook with 44.5. Once it reaches that number, I think the sharps will come in and quickly send it back down to 44 — or even 43.5 — before kickoff. Sean Koerner

Biggest Mismatch

Bills RBs vs. Bengals LBs

The Bengals have been straight-up brutalized by opposing backfields to open the season, and although the defensive line is partially at fault, the bulk of the blame belongs to linebackers Nick Vigil and Preston Brown, who have both been exposed on the ground and in coverage.

Through two weeks, the Bengals have allowed an NFL-high 427 yards and five touchdowns from scrimmage to running backs.

In Week 1, they sort of held Chris Carson in check, allowing him to get “only” 81 yards and two touchdowns on 21 touches. But in Week 2, they were utterly canceled, as Matt Breida, Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson combined for 238 yards rushing, 79 yards receiving and three total touchdowns on 35 carries and five targets.

The Bengals are No. 31 in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA with an 18.8% mark. More specifically, they are No. 32 in second-level yards allowed per run with 1.75: Once opposing backs get 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, the Bengals linebackers have been the worst in the league at limiting yards.

And last year, the Bengals were No. 31 against running backs with a 22.0% pass DVOA.

On the ground or through the air, they can’t stop anyone. One of their main problems is that they have a league-worst Pro Football Focus tackling grade. Even when Bengals defenders get close to ball carriers, they struggle to bring them down.

Vigil and Brown have been among their worst defenders, and that’s reflected in their PFF grades.

  • Vigil: 42.5 overall, 45.8 run defense, 49.4 coverage, 29.8 tackling
  • Brown: 52.4 overall, 56.9 run defense, 51.0 coverage, 69.6 tackling
Josh Allen-Frank Gore
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Josh Allen, Frank Gore

And it’s not as if the Bills’ backfield is anything special: Frank Gore is old, Singletary (hamstring) is day-to-day and T.J. Yeldon is yet to play a snap. The Bills backs probably won’t be all that efficient on a per-touch basis.

But each of Gore, Singletary and Yeldon can play on all three downs and produce across a variety of game scripts — and Vigil and Brown are just so unspeakably bad.

By the end of the game, it wouldn’t be surprising if some combination of Gore, Singletary and Yeldon had a 150-yard, two-touchdown performance. Matthew Freedman

Expert Pick

Mike Randle: Bills -6

It’s time to believe in Sean McDermott.

The Bills have started the season with two consecutive road wins for the first time in franchise history. Buffalo last started the season 2-0 in 2014, with wins at the Bears and home against the Dolphins.

Buffalo has one of the best defensive units in the NFL, particularly against the pass. The Bills ranked second in the league in pass defense DVOA in 2018, which will cause problems for a Cincinnati offense still without Green. Dalton is second among all quarterbacks with 729 passing yards, but that has translated to just 37 total points.

Joe Mixon played through an ankle injury in Week 2 and was largely ineffective (11 rushes for 17 yards). Establishing the run game is essential for a Bengals offensive line that has allowed nine sacks over the first two games.

Cincinnati’s defense was equally atrocious in Week 2, allowing an incredible 259 rushing yards and three passing touchdowns to quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.

Look for the Bills to roll in their home opener to a comfortable win. I would take this line up to Buffalo -8.

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