Koerner’s NFL Week 3 Pick ‘Em Pool Confidence Ratings: Best Straight Up & ATS Picks


Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Lamar Jackson, John Harbaugh

Sep 22, 2019, 09:25 AM EDT
  • Week 3 features two of the biggest spreads we've seen in recent memory: Patriots -23 vs. Jets and Cowboys -21.5 vs. Dolphins.
  • Sean Koerner breaks down the best NFL Pick 'Em picks for Week 3, featuring 1-to-32 ratings for against-the-spread and straight-up picks.
  • Be sure to check out the downloadable spreadsheet at the bottom to get customized advice based on the spreads used in your pool.

Whether you’re playing pick’em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick ’em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.

Let’s quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 2 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.

All odds below as of Tuesday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).

NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Ratings Methodology

These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.

To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the “true” odds are for every matchup.

In theory, sportsbooks’ lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).

Now let’s start with my straight-up ratings for Week 2 then wrap it up with ATS.

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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