Koerner’s NFL Week 3 Pick ‘Em Pool Confidence Ratings: Best Straight Up & ATS Picks

Koerner’s NFL Week 3 Pick ‘Em Pool Confidence Ratings: Best Straight Up & ATS Picks article feature image

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Lamar Jackson, John Harbaugh

  • Week 3 features two of the biggest spreads we've seen in recent memory: Patriots -23 vs. Jets and Cowboys -21.5 vs. Dolphins.
  • Sean Koerner breaks down the best NFL Pick 'Em picks for Week 3, featuring 1-to-32 ratings for against-the-spread and straight-up picks.
  • Be sure to check out the downloadable spreadsheet at the bottom to get customized advice based on the spreads used in your pool.

Whether you’re playing pick’em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick ’em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.

Let’s quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 2 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.

All odds below as of Tuesday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).

NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Ratings Methodology

These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.

To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the “true” odds are for every matchup.

In theory, sportsbooks’ lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).

Now let’s start with my straight-up ratings for Week 2 then wrap it up with ATS.

Go To: Full SU Ratings | Custom ATS Ratings

1. Patriots

Matchup: vs. Jets
Confidence Rating: 96.6%

2. Cowboys

Matchup: vs. Dolphins
Confidence Rating: 94.6%

3. Vikings

Matchup: vs. Raiders
Confidence Rating: 77%

T-4. Packers

Matchup: vs. Broncos
Confidence Rating: 72.9%

T-4. 49ers

Matchup: vs. Steelers
Confidence Rating: 72.9%

T-6. Chiefs

Matchup: vs. Ravens
Confidence Rating: 71.4%

T-6. Bills

Matchup: vs. Bengals
Confidence Rating: 71.4%

T-6. Eagles

Matchup: vs. Lions
Confidence Rating: 71.4%

9. Buccaneers

Matchup: vs. Giants
Confidence Rating: 69.9%

10. Seahawks

Matchup: vs. Saints
Confidence Rating: 65.2%

T-11. Chargers

Matchup: vs. Texans
Confidence Rating: 63.6%

T-11. Bears

Matchup: at Redskins
Confidence Rating: 63.6%

T-13. Panthers

Matchup: at Cardinals
Confidence Rating: 56.9%

T-13. Rams

Matchup: at Browns
Confidence Rating: 56.9%

T-13. Colts

Matchup: at Falcons
Confidence Rating: 56.9%

16. Titans

Matchup: at Jaguars
Confidence Rating: 55.2%

17. Jaguars

Matchup: vs. Titans
Confidence Rating: 44.8%

T-18. Browns

Matchup: vs. Rams
Confidence Rating: 43.1%

T-18. Falcons

Matchup: at Colts
Confidence Rating: 43.1%

T-18. Cardinals

Matchup: vs. Panthers
Confidence Rating: 43.1%

T-21. Texans

Matchup: at Chargers
Confidence Rating: 36.4%

T-21. Redskins

Matchup: vs. Bears
Confidence Rating: 36.4%

23. Saints

Matchup: at Seahawks
Confidence Rating: 34.8%

24. Giants

Matchup: at Buccaneers
Confidence Rating: 30.1%

T-25. Ravens

Matchup: at Chiefs
Confidence Rating: 28.6%

T-25. Bengals

Matchup: at Bills
Confidence Rating: 28.6%

T-25. Lions

Matchup: at Eagles
Confidence Rating: 28.6%

T-28. Steelers

Matchup: at 49ers
Confidence Rating: 27.1%

T-28. Broncos

Matchup: at Packers
Confidence Rating: 27.1%

30. Raiders

Matchup: at Vikings
Confidence Rating: 23%

31. Dolphins

Matchup: at Cowboys
Confidence Rating: 5.4%

32. Jets

Matchup: at Patriots
Confidence Rating: 3.4%

Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings

Against the Spread Confidence Ratings

I’ve outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Tuesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.

1. Dolphins

Spread: +22 at Cowboys

2. Jets

Spread: +23 at Patriots

T-3. Giants

Spread: +7 at Buccaneers

T-3. Chargers

Spread: -3 vs. Texans

T-3. Browns

Spread: +3 vs. Rams

T-6. Cardinals

Spread: +2.5 vs. Panthers

T-6. Bills

Spread: -6 vs. Bengals

T-6. Vikings

Spread: -8 vs. Raiders

T-6. Broncos

Spread: +7.5 at Packers

T-6. Ravens

Spread: +7 at Chiefs

T-11. Titans

Spread: -1.5 at Jaguars

T-11. 49ers

Spread: -7 vs. Steelers

T-11. Jaguars

Spread: +1.5 vs. Titans

T-11. Falcons

Spread: +2 at Colts

T-11. Redskins

Spread: +4 vs. Bears

T-11. Colts

Spread: -2 vs. Falcons

T-11. Bears

Spread: -4 at Redskins

T-11. Steelers

Spread: +7 at 49ers

T-11. Eagles

Spread: -6.5 vs. Lions

T-11. Seahawks

Spread: -4.5 vs. Saints

T-11. Saints

Spread: +4.5 at Seahawks

T-11. Lions

Spread: +6.5 at Eagles

T-23. Panthers

Spread: -2.5 at Cardinals

T-23. Raiders

Spread: +8 at Vikings

T-23. Bengals

Spread: +6 at Bills

T-23. Packers

Spread: -7.5 vs. Broncos

T-23. Chiefs

Spread: -7 vs. Ravens

T-28. Texans

Spread: +3 at Chargers

T-28. Buccaneers

Spread: -7 vs. Giants

T-28. Rams

Spread: -3 at Browns

31. Patriots

Spread: -23 vs. Jets

32. Cowboys

Spread: -22 vs. Dolphins

Custom Confidence Ratings

Your league might be using different odds, in which case, you’ll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.

Note that you’ll want to make sure to add the “-” in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column M.

Here’s an example of what the sheet looks like:

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